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You've addressed a key reason why traders fail and that's the belief that an individual outcome within a series of events for which there is a particular probability (60% or 80%, for example), but a totally random distribution, can become "more likely" (or "overdue") based on the previous...

I love this study, perfect trader mindset (rats & pigeons) vs 95% of traders mindset (smartass Yale students): http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/forecasting-is-for-the-birds-and-rats/?_r=0 What's crazier than the rat study is the pigeon study because the "win" rate is so much...

In my very humble opinion, being strong willed is the worst quality an aspiring trader can have.

5 pt stop/target is just an idea, something to test. That's all. A hook is what it looks like when price pulls back and turns back in the direction of the breakout. On the 1-min chart you get a pullback and if price breaks the high/low of a pullback bar, that is how a hook begins. Think 1-2-3...

I simply don't understand all the micro-analysis you're doing. Shortly after the open this morning price breaks through the descending pre-market trend line with conviction (by about 4 points) and then pulls back to the breakout level 4295.25 on the 1min chart. So you trail a buy stop 1 tick...

Now there's courage. Well done. The trades that come within a tick of my stop loss and then make it back to my entry almost always make it to my target if it's a with-trend trade. One thing: You didn't have to sit there for 26 minutes and endure anything. You can probably turn on a sound...

Have you tested all your previous trades (the ones that were entered by the rules of your plan) to see if # 2 trade management produces a more positive result than #1? The only reason I see to move a stop loss closer is if the stats or rules based on stats support this move. For example, I...

“You can choose courage, or you can choose comfort, but you cannot choose both. They are mutually exclusive.” - Brene Brown

Just choosing one thing to do differently will be a big step forward for your mindset. Cutting yourself off as soon as you feel frustration might be that one thing. Right here is your most important task - learn to let the winners run. If you fail to do that and feel the frustration of watching...

Also, I think if you add all the complete profit targets to the trades you cut short, your results would be very good. At least it seems that way from reading your daily recaps. Handle's idea about getting up and standing on one foot after the trade is on is a great one. The time you should be...

You quoted Rande Howell earlier in this journal and I have some of his stuff in my trading journal that might be helpful for you (underlining is mine): Trading “Not to Lose”, Rather Than Trading With an Edge When Steve began to examine beliefs that he brought into trading, he discovered he...

This statement does not bode well for your future trading success o_O

Yes, it will and it's something you have to do yourself and make it all your own. If you sat next to Lescor that year and were supposed to put on every trade he did, you'd never do it because it would be hugely uncomfortable for you, just as mirroring Geez back in 2009 and taking 5 losses in a...

What makes a "great" setup? Usually it's some sort of "textbook" price action setup such as the market tries to do something twice and fails (1-2-3 setup). And everyone sees it. Everyone with a position in the direction of the attempted moves has stop losses (or is ready to lighten up...

It is with great sadness that I post here today. My friend of several years and my informal trading mentor, Bighog, passed away early this morning following a long illness. I met him back in early summer 2008 in ET's old chat room. He loved the fact that I would just fearlessly put on trades...

I took notes on everything surrounding a setup and no one told me how to go about it. I did "guess and check" stuff. For example, if price breaks through the HOD by N ticks (tested 1-10 ticks), what are the odds it will run at least 20 ticks higher than the HOD before dropping back inside that...

Here's our friend Geez with his 48% win rate, not worried a bit about taking every valid setup despite back to back losses: As I recall, he more than doubled his account that year while I, in my quest to avoid losing trades, ended up with very little.

This is how I studied various setups. There are many "somethings" to be got if you keep at it. :)

Here's an alternative that keeps everyone satisfied:

I see narrow range consolidation at all-time highs. More often than not this means an upside breakout is likely. I think failed break out of this range would be a better sign of a pending correction. I prefer to see a double top or double bottom off a deeper pullback. There's really been no...