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if u are reversing ur strategy then u r reversing your pnl less spread and commissions ofc. Plus your limit orders become stop orders (or both are simply market orders). Why would you expect any other result when you are reversing ur strategy ? I mean, when u think logically ? Or am i missing smth ?

Your statement only proves the point. It's not only the direction that matters, it's the trade desire. Market cares about matching buyers against sellers, motives aren't only directional ofc. Exit of a long term profitable trade IS (was) directional, btw.

do u have to know where the next price tick lands?

I'm just giving "distant" examples to see if you are actually capable of thinking in the right direction.

Exactly.

Okay, so i'm not sure what you just said. "Price exists of tiny micro decisions on micro timeframe" ? I think price exists everywhere, on every period, with decisions based on strategies across the board. but ok, leave that be atm. Let me ask you this: Do you think it's possible for SP500 to...

I'm pretty sure your definition of randomness is...well...misleading. Markets would look a whole lot different if they were ;) Go on, try to define it.

Again, If you are selling options you are benefiting from low price movements because of the time/price change relationship. Premium decays in YOUR favour. The downside of selling options is large price movements where the stock price eats up more money than time gives you.

yep, TSLA. Long live the MUSKeteer

he is still selling straddles. put and call strikes are the same just not atm.

When i'm talking about vola, i'm always talking about price AND time. I really don't understand the point (edge) in your strategy. If u r selling a straddle then u r benefiting from low price movements at the expense of large movements. What else is there to think of ? Or do you think there is...

Sure, but usually when vola rises your underlying "lands" out of the money. Plus you'll probably also scare your pants off and make new decisions based on the risen vola. You are referring to classical delta hedging, something the market is already keen on doing. OP will profit from it only if...

Your question of "Will it work?" is itself absurd. If it worked then volatility would need to continuously drift lower forever. Now, that can't be true, can it ? When you trade options, you trade the future expections about volatility, that's it. If you want short straddle to work then you need...

why would you want to make offseting trades ? Why would you trade at all in this scenario ? you haven't given enough information to give any reasonable advice.

12 usd contango is pretty crazy, yep. I personally haven't seen it before but i wasn't checking it back in 2008. I wonder how bad was it then. Front can also be higher than back, for example, back in 2018 summer, front traded pretty strong premium against back.

This price (as a measure of oil cheapness) is misleading, most of the drop is happening on this current futures which expires tomorrow. New futures trade 22+ usd so technically the current/next spread is just skyrocketing. Safe to say there are/were huge longs with the need to get out or...

Interesting saying...that “half a brain” Cause, surely, oil is sold WITH a barrel...

yep, 6.30 is about right. Go ahead, sell the spread then :)

is it ? it's about 6.30 now, high was a bit above 7 yesterday and below 6 the day before. Looks pretty stable to me.

really ? can you give me a "wet dream"-like example of crude oil spread trading opportunity right now ?