Search results

Bloomberg compiles analyst estimates, similar to I/B/E/S. Both are quite good. I have not looked at Zacks. I think Yahoo data is pulled from I/B/E/S.

There are multiple reasons for volume spikes and you can classify them broadly into two buckets: informed volume vs. liquidity driven volume. Informed volume is price sensitive and happens when you buy and sell because of new information about the stock or market. E.g. the company is doing much...

This video is the greatest example of why people like Minervini are not worth your time: Mark Minervini explains his ANF trade and how he interpreted price and volume. - YouTube My favorite part is that he doesn't know that the big volume spikes are earnings dates. All of the major inflection...

The fact that he sells a private access and motivational service (his latest book lol) instead of running his own capital or a hedge fund tells you all you need to know. His claimed performance should put him in the same league as Chris Rokos, Said Haidar, Dan Sundheim and such, but he's...

Minervini is not legit.

I think fundamental analysis has a bad name in the retail trading community because it is (1) hard to do -- almost no one knows how to do it here, (2) requires a more thoughtful analysis, and (3) requires substantial learning. The professional trading world is primarily driven by fundamental...

This is a classical error when reading sell side reports. Sell side analysts give a price target for a specific scenario. Most analysts will actually include a range of prices based upon scenarios they expect, but non-paying customers only see their “base case”. Sell side analysts will rarely...

lol I’ll say it, I’m 100% certain that @VSTscalper ‘s real pnl is quite different than his “strategy backtest” shows. I am sure he has “clients” paying for his “algo” and some chat room, and I’d guess he makes far more money selling his “secrets” than he does trading them. You can take the man...

What’s your cumulative pnl so far? You started on Oct 9th right?

Cheers. For what it's worth, most professionals view the market as semi-strong form efficient. It's just a framework though -- it allows one to focus their time and effort in finding anomalies to market efficiencies. There are probably thousands of documented anomalies (many studies are stale...

Yeah no one really uses the FF model at the institutional level, but it’s a good starting point. The underlying premise is that the price of a stock reflects known information about a stock. The distribution of performance is a part of this, and is also incorporated into price. The primary...

Sigh. There’s a lot for you to learn about market structure, market participants, and how they optimize decisions given constraints and objectives. The “fundamentals” for a market maker employing an HFT model (and they’re all employing an HFT model), is to solve for a match within the b/a...

Well of course he’s backwards now, he wrote that stuff 50 years ago… it might behoove you to conduct a literature review before arriving at some sort of conclusion. :-)

Yes all asset classes and in practically every market… this has been written about extensively for the past 50+ years in financial journals. You may have heard of Gene Fama’s work in the 60s and 70s writing about efficient markets, which was around when option theory was being formalized...

My point about your asymmetry is that the market already prices in the base rate, so you actually have a 50% chance of getting the $70 trade 40% of the time. In real life your odds get worse due to transaction costs and other factors.

Good morning to you too. Technically this is true but in practice it is not because the market already prices in base rates. This means that the price you are paying for your bet already includes the base rate of odds for asymmetric performance… you would need to be able to average a realized...

The debate is about the methodology and application. For example, if someone chooses to run a regression on two non-stationary timeseries and then claims that it’s a useful signal, despite high p-value and low t-stat, you would, correctly, assume that he’s stupid. The right application of data...

I mentioned previously that hitrate was in absolute terms. The hitrate of your signal absolutely needs to be 50%+. In stats terms, if your variable has low r2, what exactly is the use of it? And if you say “it improves multi-factor performance” then the question stands for the multi-factor...

Yep! We like to say “stock prices are non-stationary”. You improve your analysis if you looked at log chg of price instead of absolute price. The old technical indicators are based upon this (oscillators, RSI, bollinger bands, etc) but don’t come calibrated properly. You actually generate a...

Yes… this style is also the bread & butter of equity pods at hedge funds like millennium, citadel, baly, etc.