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Some things to consider: - the sofr curve is now pricing in implied growth of less than 60bp in 2025 (consensus is at 1.7%) - if data this week is bad, but not consistent with a recession, then you could get a near-term rebound - however, war risk premia is likely to rise (US and Israeli...

Yes, “the price is down so therefore the price is down” is so informative and helpful, thank you.

What’s more important — my writing style or rebutting the scams/lies on the site? When you fight the good fight against the swarm of “believers”, the only way to stay sane is to keep a smile on and a laugh ready (or I’d be in tears over the sheer idiocy of some posts). Re: COT data. It’s...

I agree with you. Look this whole thread is about a guy claiming his only edge is TA. I am questioning that as an edge and am skeptical of his ability to generate alpha. I am skeptical of even my own ability to generate alpha. The market is brutal and highly competitive. I don't mind those who...

He uses COT data which is lagging (he has no edge lol).

Yes!! you should be highly skeptical of anyone saying they've got some great edge -- especially those who are just reading charts lol.

Here's a snippet from my investor letter (June):

He's talking about a few quants (e.g. LTCM). What you should take away from his post is that by the mid-90s, "TA" and chart analysis was already outdated. There's no silver bullet and for every smart quant, there's a team of smart quants going after them. In real life, the markets are extremely...

Yes but don’t conflate luck with skill. A broken clock is right twice a day, that doesn’t mean it reliably tells you the correct time.

Yes. Though I probably wouldn’t call them a “day trader”; in the pro world you call people by their strategy generally unless they’re HFT.

I understand your point, see my response to LF. At the end of the day there are three sources of edge: - informational edges (you have info the market doesn’t) - analytical (you analyze the same data better) - behavioral (you have better process controls) The data (in this case a price chart)...

I hear what you’re saying and agree with you. My point of contention is in that a manual review of time series data is inferior to a quantitative analysis of it. If your trading process is to look at a chart and then make a trading decision, you do not have an analytical edge over your...

Again, do you know what and edge is and can you explain how the ubiquitous activity of staring at a chart gives you an advantage over other market participants? I don't question whether you feel that you are good at looking at charts. I am sure you must be a world class chart-looker. Up there...

So you’re saying that your interpretation of a chart is unique and distinct from everyone else’s? E.g. I see price falling and you interpret it as rising ..?

I see you did not address the critique.

How is the one data point that literally everyone else has an edge lol? Do you know what an edge is?

I ended up doing this manually in excel. Find any good alternative?

Somewhat. It's a discretionary process, which means it requires good judgement, creative reasoning (to understand scenario outcomes), and strong reading comprehension in addition to the quantitative and financial toolkit (also need to know how to create a model in excel!).

No. The 20-30 names was a ballpark for students on the site. Most hedge fund analysts are covering between 50 to 150 names (or 50 primary coverage on a universe of 100-200 companies). Covering the stock means you build a detailed financial model and have a daily/week workflow to update your...