I tested this technique on EOD Equity data for S&P stocks and for equity indices. It does work. Things effecting the returns include position sizing as well....
Nothing here is in the realm of the tradeable - you're talking 4% CAGR with 50-60% drawdowns. (1980-present day)
The employees at The City of Niagara Falls sewer treatment plant used to dump 100,000 liters of fecal matter into the canal leading to the Niagara River every time their union had an issue with them. They did it multiple times a few summers ago, and never got reprimanded.
Blame the union.
You're so special that you deserve a "robust method"... you're psychology reaks of of "I'm about the blow up" "I blew up" "I can't handle volatility" "where is this Market going" "where have I been?" "When can I get off this ride"... Like you really think an accurate, systematic method to make...
You'd think its even worse. I can imagine all the small businesses these people are going to try and start up with what little money they have- daytrading, pet grooming, selling stamps...
some insights about bonds:
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjan11/Zeus-two01-11.html
Quote:
When the stock market should crash, it wonât⦠until some time frame far longer than even the most generous fundamentals would dictate. I said as much to Charles Hugh Smith in an October 17, 2010...
Trefoil, I agree. But the people who criticize Taleb obviously must trade in the manner that he is so critical of....They aren't just "jealous", they are probably riding the ticking time bomb each day.