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Dow down 20% between Jan 2008 and September 2008 and Berkshire is reporting earnings instead of losses. I wonder what will take for Buffett to lose money :-).

:) I don’t know if it’s going to be worse than the great depression but certainly I have seen a lot worse things in my life. Coming from a country with 20% inflation in the 80s and loan rates running at 30% yearly back then, the current situation doesn’t look that depressing to me. Somehow...

Currently the market cap to gdp ratio in some European markets can be as low as 25%. I am a buyer and expect to sell when market cap to gdp ratio returns to the normal or even optimistic levels (75% and above). The US stock market has a far higher ratio than those extremely low levels...

:D Yes, all value investors of the world were buying Nasdaq stocks at 5000. Your "If I can't assess the true value of a stock then nobody can" logic is flawed.

Using time to average down is a better system. Break your buying points into time intervals.

Position cost averaging on a diversified portfolio works if you know what you’re doing. Sometimes it works even if you don’t know what you are doing as long as the stocks are volatile enough.

He made money in sideways markets before *Dow Jones Industrial Average Dec. 31, 1964: 874.12 Dec. 31, 1981: 875.00 *Berkshire Hathaways Book Value Returns 1965 23.8 1966 20.3 1967 11.0 1968 19.0 1969 16.2 1970 12.0 1971 16.4 1972 21.7 1973 4.7 1974 5.5 1975 21.9...

:confused: never sells? http://homepage.mac.com/bobembry/studio/biz/conceptual_resources/authors/warren_buffett/warrenbuffett.pdf

From 99 to December 2007 Berkshire Hathaway book value was up 100% even if the index is practically unchanged, so it depends what and when you are buying. Imagine the returns if Buffett was managing a 2 million $ stock portfolio instead of a 2 hundred billion portfolio. I am a long term investor...

No, just upload it and it will be converted to flv.

I don’t know about Spain but the branch of Citibank in Greece also adviced and sold those “100% principle protection” products to many of its private banking clients. Now Citibank claims to all those clients that the “100% principle protection” equals 100% principle lost. There are...

Get Well Soon.

It will not stop worthless stocks from going further down but it will put an end to self fulfilling prophesies.

Long Term: insignificant. Tomorrow: who knows?

Why not use the Kelly framework? Maximize the median. Then the capital allocation between your systems is a simple math question. Trivial example …. Two independent systems with equal risk-reward , p1 probability of success for the first system (q1 = (1-p1) failure), p2 probability of...

There are analytical formulas to make this type of calculations. I don't know this software and if they have a correct implementation. Check out the online calculator here http://www.hoadley.net/options/barrierprobs.aspx? it gives accurate theoretical answers.

Just installed it. Its very fast and a nice clean interface.

Please note that a basic property of probability theory is that the probability of occurrence of either of two mutually exclusive events is the sum of their respective probabilities. If A,B mutually exclusive then P(A+B) = P(A) + P(B) In the general case P(A+B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)...

If you are asking what’s the probability of the price ending at expiry either above a higher strike price or below a lower strike price with deltas +0.3 and -0.3 then the answer is aprox. 60%. (30% above strike1, 30% below strike2, 40% between strike2 and strike1)

Nice advantage there on 1/20 odds (back in 1986).