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Its hard to say what too high is though. And as I've been stating in other responses, we no longer have a functioning market. I in some ways see this in the panic buying and the shrugging off of bad news. Just the other day it came out that maybe tariffs might not be rolled back even after...

Its actually a good video. The thesis of his point is that the rally has been liquidity driven and probabilistically, it doesn't make sense to be in the market. And this is of course a good conclusion to arrive at. But as I've been saying in this thread, this time it is different. The FED...

Hey, you're a technical trade schizo, but I don't think you mentioned in your thread why you're calling a top. Is it something you can show on a chart?

Exactly right! I learned much of this from those videos that dozu is linking to sarcastically, from George Gammon. The reason why its a big problem is because pension funds are only allowed to own shares of companies rated BBB+ or higher I believe. If these companies get downgraded, the...

Excellent point. I remember seeing charts such at this one in the link which show where the money is coming from.

Yes, you are absolutely right with what you describe, so at least we have the mechanics right. Now here is the thing with all of this. What has to be happening in the world where the NQ goes from 9000 down to 7000? Remember, dozu has personally guaranteed your trade! LOL... but all kidding...

LOL... come on overnight. On rollover day, you sell your March contract, even if the loss is at 2k, and then you buy the June contract. Yes, the price will be off maybe 10 or 20 points because of the whole dividends thing, but its a non issue in the whole grand scheme of things.

The roll is kind of easy. You just sell one contract, buy the next, pay $1 in commissions, and you're set. For the drawdown, its only a problem if you aren't ready for it. If you're prepared to take heat of 1000 points and add, then when it happens, its almost a buying opportunity...

I do think though that it is not yet time for the rug to be pulled out. Yes, there might be some shock to the system, but at the moment, I do think the FED has lots of time and firepower to fix things. When you're down 10%, that is the time to add. When you're down 20%, I think adding some...

I agree with you that we are probably going higher, as part of the melt-up/irrational exuberance phase, but I hope you are around to tell us when to sell. Are you by any chance personally guaranteeing this call through AIG? How will I be able to collect my insurance payout when necessary? :D:p

Totally agree. These percentages are funny. Look at it like this as well. The 55% drop in 2007 was 1200 points. I mean what the fuck is that? Nothing! In 2018, just the 24% drop was 1900 points. From this height, even a 10% drop will be pretty significant in terms of a dollar value. 10%...

Sadly, I'm not really sure how much market context matters these days. I mean so much of trading from the past was based on certain fundamental laws of business, or economy, or whatever else you want to call it. But this current environment is nothing like it. APPL can very well go to 1000 as...

Now I will also be the first to admit that nothing has slowed this market down. Even this latest Iran issue was shrugged off. You might call this is a strong market, but some might call it irrational exuberance, and we all know how that ends. Lets also not forget that we are living in a time...

Ok, let's make this more scientific. How much does the market have to decline before you consider yourself wrong? For example, at the end of 2018, we had a 24% decline for the NQ. Back in 2008 it was about 55%, and in 2000, it was a whopping 84% until the low hit in 2002. Since you are...

Wow, you watch this guy as well??? :). He has a very good way of presenting information. This is why I started my thread about the repo market a couple of weeks ago. It seemed like a big deal that nobody is talking about. I dont doubt that the FED will fix any problem that needs to be fixed...

I think a huge factor is the movement for "living wages". This might be specific to certain cities, but some at least have taken the approach that minimum wage isn't enough to provide the basic necessities. If a living wage is considered to be lets say $12, and minimum was a few dollars lower...

Absolutely correct. I've watched almost every episode of that TV show "Mayday" which does re-enactments of airplane crashes. In most cases, it is human error. In many cases, pilots become disoriented and crash a perfectly working plane into the ground. This is the case in a vast majority of...

Honestly, I think more trades and an amazing result makes it even more spectacular. The more trades you make, the more you need skill/edge. It also means you can trade any conditions perhaps, as opposed to having to wait for just a few perfect setups.

I love how 6 out of this list of 10 made most of their winnings today, and all seem to be different names. Its too bad that this might come down to lucky trades versus actual skill. (except for you Spectre)

Thanks for the honesty and transparency. Does your opinion now change about how you said the top is in? Also, if you weren't grabbing coffee, what would have you done? Would you have exited your positions in that first minute after the tweet? Or would you have reversed your positions?