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But you have to "know". How can you analyze anything if you don't know the facts? Apparentely you did not keep track of what you were testing. What I am reading into your statement is that it didn't seem like you were getting it right most of the time and therefore you determined what you...

Actually, this has more to do with the job than the credit score but I would actually hire the high credit score, no degree. Joe.

So if I had "predicted" the opposite of your choice, would I have been "right" most of the time? Joe.

I think the above says it all. They have been around a long time and they give you the numbers of those that are not even profitable? Run!!!! Joe.

Maybe no one understands exactly what you mean. What do you mean by hold for cash credit? Joe.

I think we need to inspect the coin. :eek: Joe.

I hope you are not serious. As far as I am concerned, this has been one of the most thought-provoking threads on this forum and I thank you for starting it. Joe.

No. As an extreme example, one is much better off "playing" a system that has 62.5% wins and only a 10% edge than a system that has a 20% edge but only 6.25% wins. The first system using full-Kelly would have a risk size of approx 26.5% of your bankroll whereas the second system would only...

Good points. I would just like to amend the second conclusion. If we get away from 50-50 propositions, using Kelly you can prove that there are many scenarios where you are much better off having a smaller edge if the "win%" is high enough which in turn would not require a larger bankroll and...

You still are confusing something. Small example: End of..............1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Day 1 Price 100 H H H H T T T T Day 2 Price 104 H H T T H H T T Day 3 Price 103 H T H T H T H T Day 4 Price 105 Coin is tossed by the disadvantaged...

Based on the original "system" the expectation is 0 but every period of time tested will more than likely have some result other than 0. The expectation is 0 because regardless of the size of the gain or loss for each day, there is a 50-50 chance for each which when added together is 0. Joe.

First, despite the naysayers, this is an excellent thread. Now for my take on this “system”. I do not trade the ES so I don't know its idiosyncrasies if any. I trade options. I can't improve on your "system" because my entries are not "random". The action of the market may be random...

No, we are not firing the coin tosser. The coin tosser still tosses the coin but you only switch if there is a loss of value from the previous session. ie. We bought and the value is down. If the coin is heads we hold on, if tails we switch because there is a loss of value. We bought...

To keep this mechanical, only flip sides if your side has a loss of value from the previous session. Cuts losses and lets winners run. Now whether there will be enough "trends" to overcome the extra tic can only be proven going forward. Joe.

My concern is that your thought process is being based on a small amount of time where the market has been moving in a direction that is favorable to your strategy. I don't think you can really gauge whether you have an "edge" until you have many more trades in all kinds of market conditions...

Do you know the %'s of each scenario and % gain and/or loss? Joe.

There is a top and bottom every trading day. Joe.

National Treasure Moonstruck Joe.

:eek: Sign me up for one of those accounts! :) Check your Broker's customer agreement. Joe. D. Liquidation of Positions and Offsetting Transactions: i. IF AT ANY TIME CUSTOMER'S ACCOUNT HAS INSUFFICIENT EQUITY TO MEET MARGIN REQUIREMENTS OR IS IN DEFICIT, IB HAS THE RIGHT, IN ITS SOLE...

Please explain why the numbers in the context of what you quoted are incorrect. Joe.