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no, I am not agressively bullish enough (I was at Dax <4400) to do more than simply owning a lot of European stocks in my long term portfolio. I am using my current margin on my future account to concentrate on shorting Bonds.

I have been far more optimistic about this bear rally than you and I still am. I made the effort to check the forecasts of German banks and although many of them are quite optimistic for year end they all say that we will retest the lows first. Since the banks always get it wrong we might see...

the moment of truth comes when the FED indeed starts buying TBonds. Up to now they have not but only made verbal interventions. Now that the TBOND crashed it puts them a little under pressure to demonstrate that they indeed have the power to keep long term rates low. They can only buy BONDS by...

so far you are right (ZB down more than 2). Lets see if they can recover. The coming crash of the long term Bonds will be huge and fast with ZB <70 as people begin to realize that having money in US Bonds is the opposite of a safe place to have your money. This will be the moment where stocks...

I can promise you that more money than you need to fullfill your basic needs (house, food, mobility) does not make you ANY happier. In Germany I would rate this at around 80k Dollar per year if you have a family with 2 Kids. Having more is nice but no one needs it really. I earn much more...

the Fed freezed the long bond rates at 2.5 percent from 1942-1951. Bernanke already mentioned this in his 2004 paper as a method to long term keep interest rates low. So basically if you get short ZB you bet that Bernanke will fail in his effort to keep 30years at his 2.5% target. You may...

well I can't see a reason to short Dax since it is getting quite stable in front of extremly bad news coming in. Of course you can second guess this and think its bad but in fact this is bullish. Anyway year is done for me and I am leaving for my christmas vacation to some warm and sunny...

are you just maybe a little bit biased :D

I assume they will not rollover at a certain time every 3 months but they will continuesly rollover part of the contracts to get a smooth curve. At least this would make sense.

it depends on how long you will need to hold it. If oil makes af fast 50% run then you will be right with $7500 but if it takes a year or longer you simply don't know the costs involved with the ETF since you can't predict the rollover costs. Rollover costs do not have to be negative all times...

the problem every ETF will have is how to get long oil. You can either buy oil and store it in large tanks or you can buy contracts in the future market. I can't see another way to be long oil. Currently due to the heavy contango situation (Jan 2010 oil is nearly 30% higher than Jan 2009 Oil)...

that is simply not true ! DXO is suffering from the currently severe contango situation in the oil future market ! If oil prices stay at that level DXO will fall 20% per year.

maybe you noticed that Dax did not care. I see bigger problems for Dax coming from the strong Euro. We will see a devaluation competition fired and started by the FED. IF EZB is not fast enough in response Euro could get to strong...

I like the fact that oil keeps on falling. I am not long oil since the contango situation is bad enough not to invest in oil even if I would be bullish for oil. But I do think that in 1 year we will see higher prices than now. The typical ET Doom-Sayer thinks rising oil price is the end of...

yes, sorry about that. The thing is that you are also adding nothing new. It has all been said already. But I tell you something that may surprise you: People will still be eating, buying cars, building homes etc. long time after we both will be gone and you need companies to do that...

just from the Topic of a thread I know that the poster is either BuyLowSellHigh or Port1385. Yawhn...

sounds great but I can't think about a possibility how this oil ETN could invest in Oil without the negative effects of the current contango situation and putting the rest in 3 months thresuries will not help either with zero yield right now. All investors putting their money into these...

I think DXO will be hedged by Futures and since the oil futures are all in a very strong contango situation it could be a problem. If you buy January 2010 oil the oil must rise 30% per year just for you to break even. So I guess (but may be wrong) that when you buy DXO and oil stays even then...

Hi, where do you by these calls / puts ? Do you use DTB or do you use Options from ABN Amro, Deutsch Bank etc. ?? I stopped hedging some years ago because my performance suffered over all. I could reduce drawdowns but I was also missing these huge runs I sometimes have when beeing unhedged.

we might see 4000 again but I think it is more likely we hit 5300 FIRST. There are a lot of signs this bear rally will have strong legs.