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well it will leave the banks with much better balance sheets (so the higher stock prices are justified) and the FED with all the trouble. They will have to print Bonds as cracy to cover all these losses so my advice would be to short bonds. Its in my view right now the best trade.

just as a reminder, Vix at the 1987 crash was above 100. So even if 32 Vix may seem high it can be by far surpassed. However I agree with the Thread Starter in nearly everything.

guess it depends. If you are a long term investor I think its quite safe to invest there now. Americans will need brokers and banks also during the next 20 years... I like to buy into sectors which are hated by the public and buy the strongest stocks there. Allianz could be one of the winners...

you never know anything for certain. There are no 100% trades out there. If you wait for them, you shouldn't trade. ES already up more than 20 handles. Maybe tomorrow rate cut, who knows.

I think its good news they let it go under. This means that the situation of the other banks cannot be so bad. If there would have been the chance of a chain reaction they would have bailed out. Also you can see Japan after 1990 that bailing out all sick banks is no solution.

if such news hit the market it makes sense to examine if the news is also news to the big players and I doubt it was. If you check the credit default swaps of Lehman you can clearly see that Lehman had no chance to survive anyway so I think this news is not really surprising to informed market...

I agree to most what you say. People take it as given that oil will never come down again and there is no risc speculating on even higher prices. This is typical for a bubble and I think we are close to the top now. Most trend following hedge-funds have to own oil now and once this train...

Hi GH, I am really impressed. I have enough money but I always go kitesurfing to Egypt and I never know in advance if I will have some wind there. So you could make a graph which predicts wind for the next 2 years so I can plan my vacation better. Then, you could make a prediction at which...

Hey Jack, are you still collecting all the bad fundamentals that confirm your view about the S&P going to 1150 ? http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=124411&goto=newpost Did you read what I wrote about cognitive dissonance there ? The problem is, you do not only...

If you use seasonals in your arguments you should at least know them. May has averaged a gain of 0.6% since 1900. What you suffer from is what experts call cognitive dissonance. Its something we find a lot among stock traders. Unfortunately their live-time in stock market is very short...

Hi Piezoe, I don't exclude anything. That makes me different from Jackstone. I think you always need a plan B if the market tells you that you are wrong. As someone said - Hubris kills... The current situation is difficult. I am neutral right now (was long both lows in January and March)...

maybe you could enlighten us what your text book analysis tells us why the S&P did not fall to 1150 but is trading close to 1400 now ?

Hi, I trade futures since 1998 and I trade part time (50%) and I could not stand the stress to trade full time and know that I need the money from trading for my living. I needed 3-4 years to become profitable and unless you are a genious and much better than me you can expect to blow out...

only 2 words but no answer could fit better. Guess he will learn the hard way soon...

I think we are really at a important point. We either break down big or see +300 points during the next trading days. Most people don't trust last FED action and have positioned short once again. I want to wait a little because next move will be big enough to catch a nice part of it.

I bought the first bottom end of January and I am buying this one, no need to get angry. I just posted the facts about current rates, so you can draw your own conclusion. Fed is creating the next bubble and the money will fly into stocks, period. If you think the FED will lower only 75points...

3month rates are trading at 165 points below current FED funds rate. Last time 3-month rates have been at <1.5% in 2002 the same time the Fed fund rate was at 1.5%. So expect the FED to lower rates by at LEAST 150 points during the next 2 months. The words "I believe" are bad if not followed...

avoiding short positions now. Fed rates are 160 points behind 3month rates so FED can lower rates by 150 points and is still behind the curve. A surprise 75point rate cut can happen any time now.

and yet another ET paper trader ready to wipe out his 1-lot ES IB account

if I have learned something valid then its the following: If you see something "strange" in the market it will most likely continue or get even stranger. We all get the same news and watch the same media and people like to fight against "strange" moves because they think its just a fault of...