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I know that I didn't say anything in favor of Iron Condors and actually I agree that they are a bad idea as you are buying the relatively expensive wings and selling the relatively cheap closer to the money options. On the comments about buy and hold not being so bad - I disagree on 2 levels...

So as I said, I am eyeballing the terminal equity value from the chart I provided because they don't provide the data (one of my many problems with them) and indeed the returns could be as high as 10% per year depending on what that actually is. The point is that as sure as hell its not 4 to 6 %...

I want to address 2008 and also the issue of Tom's reluctance to discuss expected annual returns, drawdowns and other metrics. I doubt he even knows what a Sharpe ratio is, much less a Sortino ratio. Here is an equity curve for selling 1 SD strangles (their standard strategy) from the Market...

I remember the Tim Sykes interview, it was a low point for them and I think Tom immediately regretted it judging from his comments later. I can tell that there is friction between the research team and Tom. Tom is a gut-check trader trying and struggling to morph into a systematic trader. He...

Not opining on whether zdreg is on or off topic but he asked a fair question (albeit obliquely). The edge in systematic index option selling comes from the negative volatility risk premium (VRP) that has persisted for decades now in index products. There are several papers detailing this, as did...

I was discouraged by the use of Octave in that Andrew Ng class. I am in the last of 10 weeks in Statistical Learning from Stanford also. They use R which is much preferred. Tough course. They used S&P500 index prices to demonstrate how a predictive model using logistic regression works which is...

I have saved dozens of Tastytrade back-test summary results and I have noticed inconsistencies many times. They often make the error of leaving out details of the back-testing assumption in their slides and then sometimes fill in the details on air. One huge failing in their presentation is the...

Wow, as someone who has lived in several different US states my experience was that when you move state, you are no longer tax resident in that state as of the time of moving. Now I know that leaving the country is another thing altogether but I would have thought that this too means that you...

RIA's want people who don't know how to measure investment performance because there is no way they can win business on that basis. Robo-advisers by definition outperform traditional shops because of lower fees and lower portfolio turnover plus their simple algo's which tailor asset allocation...

So, as a rating agency analyst and then banker for the first 10 years of my career I have a special fascination with this film. The trailers made me think "another Wall St bashing crowd pleaser" and I avoided it until some people who's opinion I respect said go and see it. I went twice. I was a...

Its a "wee dram" Bob, its a Scottish thing and yeah I enjoy one once in a while too. Your knowledge in this area great and much appreciated. From your old trading room-mate at Rector St. Happy New Year Frank

Thanks for that. I did spend a few hours on this but I'm not sure how to describe it. I found myself hitting a wall when trying to build a back-test. Probably partly my lack of familiarity with the application but it seems also partly due to a lack of intuitive user interface. I will come back...

I just cut and paste this from my trading/news diary from today (WSJ was original source): On Miami condos : We have “early signs of new demand slowing” while “construction pricing is busting budgets beyond feasibility” in a market where “speculation abounds” in land pricing. When framed...

It came to me as a link in one of my social media accounts. I trade options full-time so it caught my interest. I've watched the slow-as-molasses tutorial videos for the site and I'm on the fence with many questions. If it does what it purports to do that would be great but where do they get...

I trade options through IB and could use your expertise so contact me please when you are done with this project (or before even). I trade systematically. I use Excel, R and Python and could use some help if the price is reasonable. Thanks

That's a valuable, feet on the ground with local knowledge post. But there have been lots of news of hedge funds setting up in Palm Beach. I live in Manhattan and hate the taxes and weather and overall cost of living. I can see the allure. Good post, thanks

Hey Surf, I've followed your post for a very long time. Been away from this site for a long time but it's good to see your name pop up here.

My wife and I went down to Miami a couple of years ago and went around with a few different realtors in places including Fisher Island, Coral Gables and even South Beach looking at houses to rent. We stopped in this little area called Coconut Grove (without realtor) because we heard good...

By the sounds of things, the UBS London risk management systems were appalling. I've traded at small private prop firms with better controls than what this. Also, this kid was trading for just 30 months and was given this size to handle?