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The problem is to define "bad" news. A very critical element of the market behavior is expectations on interest rates. So, a bad number for the housing market could lead the Fed to cut interest rates to improve the real esate situation (lower mortgage rates). So, right now, inflation, labor...

I don't want to rain on your parade of "History repeats itself" but I would add that the devil is in the detail. And in the financial world, the detail, most of the time, is the timing. So you might be right too early or too late. I doubt what happened in 1998-2002 will happen in the same way.

Yes, if we close in the green on the S&P, this will be 9 days up and 1 day down for a gain of 2.6%. Not bad in 10 trading days ! Trying to short some ETFs to protect my long only systems has not been successful, as you can imagine.

Unfortunately, the lack of follow through of their conspiracy theories will not stop them to jump on the next ones. The pool of theories is unlimited. Let's see what the next one will be.

Interesting how Crude Oil and OIH ETF are not very correlated. Now, OIH is on a recovery slope on the weekly while crude oil is at new lows for the year. Any comments?

OK. Fine with me. I am all for freedom of speech. thank you.

God, probably, does not exist. Anytime I will see this kind of message from you, Mr "Moderator", this sign will show up. Totally unappropriate for a moderator. Stay neutral, please.

As a general rule, in trading, NEVER, NEVER assume things are extremely easy. !!!!!!

Forgot about mark to market. MTM is only valid if you have a big inventory of outstanding stocks at the end of the year. If it is only a matter of a few bucks of profit or loss left, no big deal, you will be taxed the year after. Only "good" if you have siginificant unrealized losses. I hope you...

Well, i am going to repeat what I said on a few other threads, which is the best methodology, and time frame is a key component of it, is the one adapted to your personality. If you are impatient, trend following is not really for you, and vice versa. So there is no clear cut answer, only the...

It is actually a Schedule C. You can deduct all your business expenses against your profits.

We are feinitely on the same page. I was not arguing that it should be done. Just that for some, psychologically, it is the way to trade. I don't do it anymore. For day trades, momentum and flair are more important than for swing trades.

I think I mentioned, "Find an edge." By this I mean, developing a trading system and after testing it over a period of time, trade it if it has positive expectancy. Look at the tested data and the drawdawns. Abandoning a system is difficult because you just do not know if it is a temporary...

Agree totally here and this is the problem: it takes time to find out what works and what does not work for you. Difficult to know in advance. One has to find it for him(her)self. This is why it is important to start small during this trial and error time.

Agree. I missed to mention that earlier, but you nailed it: by structure I meant consistency (just do it and each and every time). A problem I had earlier was to analyze each trade and change my structure all the time. And of course, those changes were always too late, based on the last trades...

I agree that the market does not care about the break-even, but it does not care about the stops and targets either. We still need a structure to build our trading on. And I believe that trading is mainly psychology. So if, psychologically someone feels good about not letting a profitable trade...

Well, the problem in daytrading is the noise. I have abandoned the 5 minutes chart to the 13 minutes, which gives less signals but has less noise. I do not use break-even anymore, I just use the initial protective stop and the target. For profitable trades, I try to capitalize on...

Timeframe, please ! Daytrade, swing, position?

Could you define "significant"? Thanks.

I think I read that before ! Was it Thorn ?