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Not sure that dead cat bounces apply to the current market. The weekly, monthly charts of the markets are still in clear uptrend. Let's call a cat , a cat :D

Actually, it confirms that the market is pretty much stuck in a narrow range. The S&P is back to the beginning of the month (1280), with 1297 high and 1253 low. Those times are not easy for trend followers. Right now, the money is made on reversions to the mean types of systems.

Big tug of war, here. The "obvious" thing to do is to short in those new highs areas, so I am getting ready to go long, to participate to the squeeze. Could be short-lived, though, with the recent market shoppiness.

Yes, a lot of short should come up around 1300. And then we will see how those new highs are tested. Could be a nice squeeze but everything is possible at this point.

I am with you, Thunder. I am not learning anything from a trading strategy standpoint but I find some good information on trading ideas, systems development, taxes, etc.. But the main benefit of ET for me, is the entertainment value. The debate on ES hitting 1300 in February or not, is a good...

No, no, I vote for the bird ! PS> Rubberbird, send me the cheque now !

Agree with most of you here. My swing trading systems are only based on price patterns. I don't even know how the charts look like for the stocks in the portfolios. As far as day trading is concerned, I still use charts, to give me points where something can happen, support/resistance, Fib...

TWX, if it closes above 17.37 is forming a nice hammer, on the daily.

As the old trading joke goes, reaching 100 Millions is possible, if your starting capital is 200 Millions !!!!

Totally in agreement with ozzie. At times random, at times not, which makes it random I suppose. Key is money management. I am fine with a 50% win/loss system, as long as the winners are bigger than losers.

Electric, I will put aside the "philosophical" aspect of my mail, for now and focus on the drawdowns. I am not sure if I understand you correctly. Are you saying that your Equity account never comes down? Or are you saying that when it comes down, it is because you are not trading well? Someone...

I have a slightly different approach to losses from you all. I just do not think that the end result of my trades profit or loss is due to me being good or bad. Actually, since I have been trading quite systematically, I know that some profitable streaks will be followed by unprofitable ones...

Could rubberbird and volente be the same person, showing some sign of dual personality problem? Anyway, nest week promises to be interesting, with a test at new highs.

Your system sucks ! Just kidding, like you I hope this thread will remain professional. I follow your method, also called 123 but a possible entry in your example would be the break out of your second S , when the instrument comes back from its lowest R. It is generally a good risk/reward...

Flipping a coin is pretty good ! Seriously, you are looking for the holly Grail , which would be the answer to that question. I am always an agnostic, on a daily basis. What matters is that you control your losses and profits. Also, you might want to study/test how some stocks or indexes...

My point is that trading is a probability game where 50% is likely the most accurate odd of any calls (volonte or yours) but that letting your profits run when you are right and cut your losses when you are wrong provides the best edge to make money. But maybe you have a better system with a...

Could the "fade the volente" system be not that infaillible, after all?

Yes, back in 2001!

Well, how do you explain the nice summer rally last year starting the day after the London bombing? I really don't and one thing I know now is that it does not matter why things happen. It is just important to see how the market reacts to events and go with the flow. The why is irrelevant at...