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It is because you assume that win rate is a stationary random variable. But if for a few months it drops to 0.2 before it goes up to 0.8 for average of 0.5 2% may drive you broke and 0.5% may not.

Moving averages are both risky and rewarding depending on use. You must be prepared for the drawdown. If you start using them at the point of the drawdown you are screwed. If you are lucky and you start near the beginning of the trend you can make a fortune. Timing is everything.

It was worse in the 1960s as far as I can deduce. We live in a time of free information, www, startup financing. and much more that people 30 years ago couldn't have dreamed of. There are no excuses for failure other than bad luck.

He is correct about reading books not being helpful because mostly what you read regards experiences and experiments of authors and the details cannot be comprehended abstractly but only through experience.

Any way of checking this real-time?

Very good info. Thanks.

I have seen some academic publications proving that day trading is a losers game and many that claim TA is a losers game in general. Having said that I day trade once in a while but I never made a lot of money from it. I would say that retail forex is a losers game because even a spread of 1 pip...

The old color was better. Easier to read.

Does this system hold open long and short positions at the same time?

Good suggestion but easier said than done. :)

I did not like it. The best book is the one you will write in your mind after trading for several years.

System A: MAR ratio 1 (10%/10%) System B MAR ratio 2 (100%/50%) which one is better? Let me tell you IMO all these metrics are pure junk in comparing systems.

They all have problems.

+ Moreover a top would not be a top unless someone buys there.

This has paid off well http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=278914&perpage=6&pagenumber=5

I am buying here because too many losers see a head and shoulders in GOOG.

It is only so because you are getting very good at it :)

Futures funds are a hedge to stock funds. They made high profits in 2008 when stocks plunged.

Thanks for this info.

IMF would be out of business without the European debt problems.