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I forgot to comment on this stupidity. "Worse than random" compares to the statistics of those random sequences obtained by tossing a coin. You do not throw a coin to get worse than random you numbchuk.

What a retard he is!

I admit that. But not from you because you have no connection to trading. You are being silly. Commission and spread in ES is about 1/5 of a tick. It is not the commission that kills trading but the frequency of trading. If you trade once a week with 50% win rate and 2:1 reward:risk this is...

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To start with you should apologize for involving a mother in this conversation. This is the first time since I joined this group I come across someone doing this. I don't look down on people who lose money because I also lost my share when I was learning. My only point was that if you trade...

Absolutely not. If it were, it would not have survived this long. This is a limited view. Also, if you believe that, you should not even participate in a trading forum because you are wasting your time. You should try to find positive expectation games to talk about. So what? This is not...

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Because he wants you to understand that losers speak about losers and winners speak about winners. It's simple. Even if you are trading randomly in the markets you have high probability to profit. The reason so many fail is because they trade worse than random , they choose difficult...

I have heard about this "tape reading" thing many times in the past but haven't seen any convincing definition for it. Are you implying subjective interpretation of price action by looking at a quote screen?

This comes at a price called "volatility". MAs smooth out volatility but introduce lag.

Buy some collocation. That will do it. :D

Excellent post. I'd also like to add that most intraday backtests are not realistic because slippage is too high. HF robots know when you are placing an order and move the market their way. If the OP would like to report the profit factor and Sharpe ratio along with avg. win to avg. loss...

There is always something new to learn. I wouldn't be surprised if some well-known hedge managers are members here and we don't know that. Learning never stops and markets keep on changing.

You can get very nice and smooth trends with a random number generator. "If it has four legs, it is not always a dog." You better read Aronson's book (pp. 115-121). Although you have genuine intentions your thinking is seriously flawed.

Expectation is the average of trade returns. If it is not stationary then I argue that the probability of having negative values is high in a mean-reverting price series.

Interesting post in this blog about intraday ES trading.

Expectation is useless in trading unless it is stationary. If you can find a stationary positive expectation you make money. This is hard because of constant arbitrage. Expectancy is a term coined by V. Tharp who subsequently tried to patent it I believe but did not succeed. It is defined as...

Sounds interesting but is it posssible to get a patent on math usage?

The price action lab blog places the top around January of next year using Hurst exponent analysis and maybe sooner based on projected Fibo levels.

What do you mean by "validate"?