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There won’t be a 50% drawdown. The “LOOMING RECESSION” is priced-in.

Treasuries are paying 5.5%. Care for a risk-free $55,000 this year? You’ll sleep like a baby. Along with $SPY, this is your benchmark. See if you can beat them with your cute little Fx strat. …and these are real-world assets traded with real money. I’d rather you trade with 1k in the real...

I was thinking of buying Treasury issues, moving them to my brokerage, and reselling them for a small profit. Basically brokering them. I thought perhaps I could make a risk-free dollar or two. Not as easy as I'd thought. In addition to a 45-day hold time, moving issues out of...

God only knows the hours they're making these kids put in.

Almost like a Treasury Bill: buy it at a discount, and in six months it matures into the full value... although you must agree that there's a bit more risk involved here! :D Yeah I agree that it was closest to a future, except they weren't buying a contract, they were actually paying a...

Why do you think he was selling them short? Looks to me like a combination of a Ponzi scheme and making an options market for sneakers. Great story thanks for sharing!

Hmm... if I were to buy a 4-week bill maturing in 28 days, and roll it into a new purchase, can I then transfer it out immediately and cut the time down by around 15-17 days? Example: on May 1st acquire a 4-week bill, which matures on May 28th, and roll that into another auction on the 29th...

Seems there as a 45-day hold time before securities purchased via Treasury Direct can be transferred to a broker and marketed. Is this true? Is there any way around this (outside of rolling maturities into a new bond). 45 days is a looooong time... 1080 hours...64,800 minutes... 3,888,000...

Thank you <3

First, thank you for your referral to Schwab for agency bonds. Based on your opinion I set up an account with Fidelity. I have a big T issue maturing in July and plan to break that up and purchase some agency issues. So it looks like I must work through an investment bank to purchase a Muni? I...

Anyone know the smart way to view and buy Muni offerings directly (e.g., not through a broker)? In other words, buy the municipal bonds directly from the municipality, city, town, etc. that's making the offer. Cut out the middle-man. What's the "Treasury Direct" of the Muni world? Thanks...

Can you please give an example of how people trade the yield curve? ty

So the Fund profits from positions in high-risk tranches on CDO/CDLs. They mitigate risk via diversification, and limitations on leverage. These “baby bonds” are used to fund purchases, and the Funds also have a layer of preferred stock to further protect the lender/babybond buyer. Where’s the...

CDOs

Thank you!!!

Anyone know of a calculator that will tell me if it makes sense to sell a bond at current market price? That the market price of the bond has “broken even,” and market price is >= holding to maturity, including taxes and the time value of money? Simple example: BOT 1yT bill with a 5% yield...

Until the ML algos start accurately predicting your moves and turn your portfolio blood red.

Then how would you use GPT to gain an edge?

I think you misunderstand... I'm not talking about a _language_ model, I'm talking about a generative model "pre-trained" with market data. GPT is far more than language. It can be used to generate images, sound.. and even a market snapshot. In other words, instead of generating language, it...

Anyone using GPT for a trading edge? Create an LLM, or LTM (“large trading model :)” trained on equities data, generate a future market state, and trading based on this prediction/expectation. I know it’s been done at the institutional level, but now that GPT is becoming available to the...