What is the deal with the random capitalized words? Is there a science behind it or you just pull it out randomly from emphasis? I feel like I have seen it somewhere before.
Lol 3 weeks ago == dated as can be. Almost twice as many as the flu now and still increasing...
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html2
How would you reference them usefully and not use them in decision making?
Better question. If I could improved the prediction by 10%, would that be worth anything to you?
I would probably pay way less attention to there numbers. If it isnt a greek, it is a in house calculation. Maybe across the whole option universe they are pretty accurate, but will have real variance in specific cases.
LOL. I worked in the SPX. I'm sure there are some people who know more about options on here, but not many. I told you pros don't use those calculations and you through up some BS website and pretend it means something. Best of luck.
Ignore.
Probability of touching is the change over the next 9 days that the price ever gets to the strike. Probability analysis is the chance that it is at or above the strike upon expiration.
So they are not the same.
Unless I misunderstand the probability of touch for a call and a put of the...
The delta/ probabilty correlation is just that. A handy approximation. Certainly not accurate enough for back testing. I can't imagine anyone who is trading professionally use those percentages.
If you are not hitting capacity constraints, it is all in your head. Automation is the best friend of scaling up. System had a bad day instead of I'm an idiot. Even if you automate paper trading so that you see how much your decisions cost.