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Very funny, but factually inaccurate. The wheat speculator is Arthur Cutten. Richard Whitney was not NYSE president in 1923 but 1930-35 and he lived into his 80s, long after serving several years in prison. The BIS did not exist until the early Thirties.

I created real-time TICK and indexes with eSignal and DDE. I no longer use it, as excel uses a lot of cycles and the marginal increase in information wasn't worth it.

Ed Thorp had a pricing model that anticipated Black-Scholes, which he used to price warrants to great effect. That was in the mid-Sixties and there was a lot of mispricing. There were no exchange traded options until 1973, interestingly when the Black-Scholes paper was published.

For a guy who doesn't like finance much Taleb certainly knows how to make money with it: He has been running derivatives trading and hedging seminars with Paul Wilmott for awhile that are geared toward traders and managers. The most recent one was last week in London. They cost £1999 per...

I got the impression he does trade for the black swan event from the New Yorker article a few years ago about him and Niederhoffer (I think it was written by Malcolm Gladwell). It's been a few years since I read it but that was my impression.

If GDP growth is your measure of how well an economy is doing here are some statistics. I took a look at GDP data from 1790 to the present to see what light that would shed. A few results: 1. The highest GDP expansions over a 20 year period follow recessions and occur during war periods...

This is a terrific finance/vba book: http://www.amazon.com/Advanced-modelling-finance-using-Excel/dp/0471499226/ and this is one of the best for building excel/vba apps: http://www.amazon.com/Professional-Excel-Development-Applications-Addison-Wesley/dp/0321262506/

Here's a nice little Vista gothca if you're burning backup data on dvds (from http://enthusiast.hardocp.com/article.html?art=MTMxOCw0LCxoZW50aHVzaWFzdA==): "DVD Burner: Burning a data DVD is as simple as drag-and-drop, but there's a catch. Putting in a blank CD pops up a dialog that asks you...

Try the CRB Commodity Yearbook. A local library may have a copy in reference. N.B., there weren't energy futures around 50 years ago but you can get spot charts.

The article was posted 3 days after the Eurex credit derivative future was available. I don't know what you can project from the first three days of trading for anything. The 20+ billion figure is notional value. I would think that for this market to end badly that credit markets in...

I'm a little confused by this comment: a smaller sized, electronically traded SP500 future is the e-mini. I believe the SP500 contract is fungible with the e-mini in a 5:1 ratio. If anything I think institutions trading SP futures would prefer to keep the larger size; a smaller contract would...

If IB updates 4 times per second then isn't it the case that a 50 tick bar is approximately just a 12.5 second bar? A tick chart on Signal can be any length of time. It's an apple and oranges comparison. Now, if you used volume instead of ticks your comparison might be much closer.

Sponger - My recollection of ACD is that Fisher set up a break out boundary that was a point or two outside the (for example) 10-minute OR. (I might be wrong on the details; I read the book a few years ago.) My comments pertain to the stock indexes. Most of the time the price in the first...

It is because fibs are here, there and everywhere that they have an uncanny ability to mark reversal points.

I'm not sure I followed your english, but I would create a second admin account and then set my current admin account as a limited user.

I tested ACD with historical data (probably only two or three years of prices) a few years ago using Fisher's parameters and it didn't perform well. However, I've been using the concepts behind ACD for years (well before Fisher's book or even Crabel's came out) and they form the core of how I...

Chaos theory? -- nice non sequitur.

I only use fibonacci ratios in my trading. My method is to reverse any retracements that fall between .382 and .786. Works every time.

Here is an interesting link on some of the improvements in Excel 2007: http://msdn2.microsoft.com/en-us/library/aa730921.aspx, with this section dealing with the multithreaded capabilities http://msdn2.microsoft.com/en-us/library/aa730921.aspx#office2007excelperf_ExcelPerformanceImprovements.

I migrated a set of 5 min ES data from the last 6 years over from Excel 2003 to 2007. Before it was spread over multiple sheets and now it fits on one sheet! This is a big plus for me. Formulas on the full data set appear to run faster than before and saving seems faster, but I did not...