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12-11-19 : Closed half at 10. Nasty pullback. Perhaps it was just a 3 day squeeze.

Not really.

I am still long CT H/K/N fly. The contango is too steep on 19/20 expiries compared to 20/21. I don't know for flat prices. Conditions were quite bad this year, and export sales are quite good lately, even without China. Actually, I haven't checked Cotton's fundamentals in a while...

KW/ZW : Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice...:(

12-09-19: Out @ -0.19. Good trade.

Out @ -0.019. Crappy trade. This instrument is getting too illiquid. Quite a shame.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/agriculture/120919-argentine-farmers-worry-about-interventionist-policies-from-new-govt?utm_source=hootsuite&utm_medium=twitter&utm_term=plattsag&utm_content=b38d948b-f8dd-409a-af33-c0e7f298c6ed&utm_campaign=agriculturenews

12-09-2019 : Long Robusta coffee F/H @ -9. - Short squeezes can be really violent on Robusta. - Funds are short. - Something was brewing on friday with volume.

I guess you are talking about companies with other economic activities than just trading, and trading with brokers that are not branches of the commercial bank in question. I use my commercial bank only to wire in/out of brokers, pay salaries/dividends, accountant, travels and other expenses...

Just an update on this. I know a guy in France who simply couldn't find a commercial bank to create an LLC type structure for his trading. He allegedly did them all . This is getting ugly. When you are about to relocate abroad and you know you will create a "company" for your trading, make sure...

12-06-19 : Short Lumber H/K @ 2.9. - High historical level. - F/H dropping. -Seasonals.

12/06/19 : Out @ -0.0041. Nothing special. Worked according to plan.

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/blogs/canada-markets/blog-post/2019/12/03/march-hrs-trying-bottom?referrer=twitter#.XeekqP5zKaM.twitter

12/04/19 : Long MWH20/ZWH20 @ -11.5. - Unusual historical discount. - Large fund short on MW. -ZW spreads still backwardated but reversing a bit. -Powerful reversal yesterday.

Last call for the ethanol F/G spread. Still 10 lots on hanging at -0.012.;)

No, not at all. You can post that kind of trades. But Overnight is right. When displaying spreads as a result of OHLC datas of different legs, you end up with time series with unreasonable ranges. They use for example F and H highs and G low of a bar to generate the high of the "butterfly" for...

11/25/19 : Long ethanol F/G @-0.011. - Z/F just went ballistic today. - Argo terminal rail strike, difficulties for ethanol plants to get corn ( basis, moisture...). Beware this contract us getting illiquid. Don't hold to close to FND if you are tempted...;)

I believe you are talking about options, so hard to tell without knowing the strikes. Futures fly has a seasonal tendency to go lower into expiration.

Especially this year with IMO 2020 and the global distillate tightness, but for real, I think I have never traded it directly. IMHO the oil products landscape will be reshaped and historical seasonalities, extremes(... )won't be relevant in the future . Refineries have will have to readapt and...

11/22/19 : Short RB F/G @0.0019. - Higher Gasoline stocks on monday. -Z/F undervalued dragging F/G. -Seasonality.