Search results

LOL...As Donald Tusk said, those brexit politicians should really have a special place in Hell for championing the undoing of 45 years of laws and treaties without a damn idea how to carry it.

No frost scare or aanything, but it is on the move today:D

I haven't checked much of the developments on this thread, but here is the state of the relocations. I would have thought Frankfurt would have been the great winner but apparently it is Dublin...

Not sure about going long...LOL

Last 1/4 liquidated @ -18.050 today. :) A good example of a seasonal trade where you bet on new historical extremes instead of a return to the mean. Hogs is a good instrument for those.

Out@ 1. Proceeded to do next to nothing in 8 months.

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/articles-and-reports/trade-war-tensions-and-tariffs.html

Corn was supposed to be the tightest this marketing year, but as we are approaching spring, there is still plenty of it. Here is a related article ...

Out @ -0.17. With fees, that's a breakeven.

Just put a reverse ethanol crush spread, Long 1 EHK19-2*ZCK19 @ 2217. - The US is making pressure on China to lower ethanol tariffs. - The profit margin of ethanol is still really low even if it increased lately. - Corn is the laggard in the latest export inspections.

I won't touch the KW/W anymore this year. So many people have been caught on the wrong side of it, me included. The problem is SRW stocks are low whereas HRW' aren't. And HRW isn't winning much export business despite Russia being exhausted. France is getting the lion's share now.

A bit of everything you listed indeed. London cocoa is mainly West Africa whereas NY is mostly SE Asia. There can be some physical arbitrage, because most of the low quality cameroon beans that were depreciating London last year are gone( not sure about this one ). And it should mean revert as...

Just went long the London / NY cocoa spread again @ -162 $/T. - Drought threatening mid-crop in west Africa. - Near record historical lows. - London curve backwardating whereas NY standing still.

I am still tempted on a long RB/HO now as it is record high and seasonals are on our side, but the fundamental picture doesn't support it.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/021419-feature-us-gasoline-consumers-poised-to-reap-benefits-of-strong-diesel-margins-in-2019

Hello Bone, what do you think about the RB/HO spread right now? Refineries have been maximizing their distillates output vs gasoline for quite some time now...

Yes. I guess.

Sorry for not keeping track of my trades lately, but I have moved at the end of the year and was too busy...

Long OJ K/N @ -1.6. - Frost season -H/K has moved up -Seasonals

Out @ -11. When it is too obvious and everybody is talking about the trade, then it is probably not worth it...