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I agree for beans but not necessarily for pork. I heard yesterday the 77700 MT sales to China is the biggest ever. The demand is really there now. The consequences of ASF and drop in chinese pork production aren't fully understood at this point. IMO the justification of dropping spreads in hogs...

Out@ -9.450. Not good. Spreads really trade independently from outrights on livestock. If someone has an explanation for the drop in J/K and then K/M, I am all hears...

I find a bit odd that summer HO months are currently quite rich compared to HOF20 with IMO2020. If you take HO N/F, Q/F, U/F, they are all quite high historically whereas HO being an ultra low sulfur diesel, it should be in much higher demand next year( or at least represent a proxy for new...

By the way, I just shorted ZS X/H @-15.75. - Huge carryout, lower chinese soymeal consumption. - Price risk on the outrights is on the downside as everybody assume the trade war will soon end. - CME increases storage charges from 0.165 c/b/d to 0.265 c/b/d from Nov expiry on.

I meant 1000 millions bushels.

I don't think so. The soybean ending stocks will be near 1000 millions tonnes. Previously the record was around 600. The feeding demand for soybean meal is down 40% in China due to ASF. Even with a resolution of the conflict, I don't see it going that high again, but I don't trade outrights.

Good point.

Short canola X/F @ -6.8. - China stops importing canadian canola. - Seasonals. -N/X very low compared to X/F.

So the whole world is afraid of the US unilateral economic sanctions? I just find it odd...

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/032919-us-to-extend-iran-oil-sanctions-waivers-to-china-india-korea-turkey-survey I still don't understand one thing : Why would India, China, Russia ...comply with the US sanctions on Iran or even Venezuela? Who gave Trump the...

Short ZC/KW @ -67.75. - At this ratio, wheat can start replacing corn in animal feed. - Corn numbers just came in much higher than expected...

Out @ -0.145.

Out @ -14. Small loss. Looking at the charts, I don't know why I decided to take this trade at the time.:confused:

Long Hogs K/M @ -8.05. - I needed to take part of this ASF craze at least once, right? - Apollo J/K is launched. -K/M still at sea level or even deeper in the ocean.

Out @ -0.1. Big orders protecting inversion.

Short ZS X/F/H butterfly @ -3. - The trade deal has been close to get reached for 3 months... - Even if it is reached, the carryout is gigantic and wheat gaining soy acreage is far from sure in the high plains. - X/S overvalued on the curve. -Seasonals.

It seems FC K19 is coming back in line... more or less...today

Short RC K/N/U butterfly @ 4. - Ample supplies in Vietnam and Brazil's Conilon crop. - K/N overvalued compared to the rest of the curve. - Arabica/Robusta spread quite low. -Seasonals

Now, the RB/HO spread is reverting but it can be temporary. I think that IMO 2020 makes any RB/HO historical analysis worthless from now on. We are kind of entering a new era.

Short ZR K/N@ -0.155. - WASDE showed record US and world stocks. -K/N overvalued compared to H/K and N/U. -Seasonals.