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Neither smart money nor retail are buying. $87 Billion was funneled out of long only funds and ETFs in the first quarter. Like some of the other posters said, no individual investors are available to pull out so much capital in such short period of time. The real buying comes from S&P 500...

Turkey sovereign yield curve is still in heavy backwardation. Look at how unhealthy this thing is. The recession has just begun, 1/3 of companies in XU100 have a net debt/ebitda > 4.5, all in USD denominated debt. Even better news for sellers, President Erdogan does not believe in economic...

There isn't any point in debating this dozu fellow, from what I can tell he is a long term investor who buys and hold the QQQ. He does not trade, investing is a completely different game. The odds of changing a stranger's opinion over the internet is smaller than being a successful trader who...

In the most simplest term possible: The "Economy" is a measure of how well one can consistently pay for their spending habits. Financial indexes are not the economy, they are more or less futures on economic conditions 6 month to 12 months forward based on their inherent discounting...

Every once in a few years, we get these -10% to -20% corrections to shake the weak hands out of the game. Yep. Been there, seen that. The problem is when both pros and the so called "weak hands" are knocked out of the game all together, that's when you know the hunter has become the hunted.

The big picture is really: why have so many pros left the game?

Yep! But looking at conditional probability, we are passed the January highs of last year, yet smart money flow has FALLEN -30% at the same price level, at roughly the same volatility.

Would anyone like to sum up what happened to this fellow Fibo? I understand there is so some emotional turmoil going on but the thread is 86 PAGES long for god's sakes. I'll need a morning of coffee and biscuits to just get through it. :D

"What do you do after a losing trade?" The same as what I do after a winning trade, nothing.

Okay so first of all how is this thread 84 PAGES? LOL Regardless, there are some legit catalysts out there in the near term which may finally turn this into a seller's market: 1. Trade deal euphoria/sell the news (deal is so bad that it is completely below market expectations, i.e. tariffs are...

I've been short on this market for a while and making money. My ego isn't big enough to bet against growth stocks, I mostly sell trash with accounting scandals, litigation, deceptive marketing, etc. But I certainly do know a few traders who ARE betting against growth. They were very active in...

There is no doubt this game is like a Safari. The million dollar question is: when do the hunters become the hunted? The pros are very good at this game, but every once in a while there is a fellow who leaves his rifle behind in his convoy while taking a leak........

Some of the folks here are comparing this rally to a 2016 scenario. I fail to see the resemblance. In 2016 we did not have any peaks in charting (sudden change in financial paradigm) nor was the yield curve inverted at that time. Both are at play ATM. Either way we are probably within ± 2%...

I've been lurking here for a while, it's a great forum. In addition to that, roughly 85% of the members here are either long term investors, selling naked puts, or permabulls. It can be quite frustrating to repeatedly run into hunting parties in the woods, as a bear :p

Bloomberg Smart Money Flow Index, which has been highly correlated with the SPX for the past 20 years, has plunged over -30% since Jan 26, 2018. While the major indices hit ATH last year, the SMI fell significantly. Last quarter, despite the double digit rally in world markets, smart money flow...

Interesting thread. Amateurs lose because they are aiming to be a part of 99% of traders who lose money. Anyone remember the U.S. national motto ? (NOT In God We Trust ) "E Pluribus Unum"

I'm new here but there are plenty of threads on this forum with regards to naked options selling, ICs, spreads. They were very useful in that I did not have to go through the pain of blowing up a few trading accounts with OPM, then learning the lessons myself.

No, you'll be amazed. In terms of ROE, ROA, earnings yield, revenue growth, the NDX components are only 200-300 bps higher than the SPX. But currently we have roughly 33 to 40 P/E for the former and 18 to 22 P/E for the latter. It's more like comparing a Fuji to a Granny Smith apple. :p...

If interest rates are hitting 3% permanently than the NASDAQ is in BIG trouble. The earnings yield on that index is.... (drumroll) exactly 3%, and 2.5% when including all those tech firms which grow revenues and bleed money. You gotta look at other indices too, there are huge price to earnings...

There is a lot of noise about the indexes making ATHs recently and whether or not a large move is imminent in either direction. However, a plot of NYA vs. SPX shows a composite of every single listed stock on the NYSE was NOT able to recover from the euphoric buying in Jan, 2018. In addition, we...