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  1. efficiency

    Value investing vs technical analysis

    Buffett is a businessman. ie "cash flow" His compounded annual return from 1956 to 1969. for his partnership was roughly 26% per annum. However. that's skewed by his purchase of American Express in 1964, after the salad oil scandal, and with disregard for position size. Is bottom fishing...
  2. efficiency

    Is Trading Dying Out?

    Attached is a chart of a certain type of volatility. Volatility, in this instance measured by NYSE advances versus declines, is the trader's friend, but it isn't too kind to people with 401-K's. Lots of movement but no NET progress. A lack of price persistency. This is a chart of the last...
  3. efficiency

    Monday morning's volume buzz

    1. You transact in price. 2. Blocks can be negotiated and not necessarily appear on tape. 3. A block acquired by the ax can be fed back in over a period of hours, days or weeks.
  4. efficiency

    GLD about to explode

    Established senior miners have operating leverage from a reasonably stable cost per oz pitted against rising bullion. They should have their day in the sun before "this" is over. Junior miners, that's a whole different story.
  5. efficiency

    Relative strength of European versus US Markets

    This is a trading site. Portfolio management is remote. You might consider managing individual positions and cutting the cancer out rather whining after the fact. IF it wasn't for foreign currency translation, you'd be in worse shape. You might consider sending a thank you note to Timothy...
  6. efficiency

    Long TBT for the very long period

    Agreed.
  7. efficiency

    Rule of Friday

    Friday, with the exception of option expiration is to EITHER to keep the public in over the weekend OR............ repel the public (for that point in time). This is in accordance with specialist/market maker inventory posture. IF there is a material gap in "thee market" on any Monday...
  8. efficiency

    The Pipedream of Daytrading

    Darvas didn't go bankrupt, but he did over-concentrate and the 1957 bull and out of sight out of mind offered a little assistance. After so many years, I get tired of the Paul Bunyon mythology about Livermore. Bi-polar and 1934 Securites legislation eliminated any edge he had left. 1906...
  9. efficiency

    Turn-of-the-month effect strategy

    It should be apparent IF you bought SPY 7/27 on open and sold 8/5 MOC, you would have pissed away 12 points unlevered. What you have is a seasonal bias. Hardly infallible. Consider buying the Thursday before expiration and sell after assignment on the following Friday afternoon. It too...
  10. efficiency

    are your trading losses hard Stops or mental Stops ?

    Always is a strong word. Large size is relative. You've indicated what your posture is. Hard stops telegraph where you are and your intentions at that price point. Whether hard or mental, "honor thy stops" An appropriate way to effectively use mental stops is to set alerts. When hit...
  11. efficiency

    why does price tend to fall faster than it rises?

    The specialist/market maker racing to cover his shorts with minimal participation. As a by-product he's cleaning out hard stops to replenish inventory.
  12. efficiency

    Im calling the bottom! The bottom is in!

    Sure is a strong word (and one helluva anti-perspirant)/
  13. efficiency

    Half of adults in the US could be obese by 2030 - Los Angeles Times

    LOL. The transition from cane sugar to beet sugar to cheaper fructose syrup may be a coincidental indicator. I don't happen to think so. Nasty stuff, and its in just about "everything" processed.
  14. efficiency

    Prepare for the "The Kick The Can Down The Road Crash of 2011"

    First off. there haven't been that many crashes. Secondly, Secretary of State James Baker's useless speech about currency was the day before the Crash of 1987.
  15. efficiency

    can you short leveraged ETFs?

    No it's not. They track different. Also re-balance each day. Accordingly, don't stay at the party too "long" Oh, one more, people that live glass houses, probably shouldn't throw stones.
  16. efficiency

    GLD forming a new bottom here

    You registered THIS month. You've got a whopping (2) posts, which I must admit is probably "better" than the few in the 10,000 range. What could YOUR motive for this post possibly be? A benefactor? Your naive notion of front-running? Pssst, try as you may, you can't move...
  17. efficiency

    next big bull ===> DBA

    Doesn't look too compelling to me. Early? Should have been owned in 2007. Note the low volume and......what happened when volume exploded, Psst, it's called distribution. Base was in 2009. Trend up was a year ago. At resistance, Been there awhile. Money is made from price...
  18. efficiency

    I am short gold

    Not in bullion nor contracts. The lagging senior miners. Yeah in a parabola there are sharp moves.. Sometimes of intolerable magnitude. The fat lady at the rodeo, rather than the opera, hasn't sung yet.
  19. efficiency

    Prank calling Jim's show

    Personally, I'm more interested in pulling fish from the river than getting junior high jollies. You know, "greed is good", Gordon.
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