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I can't comment on a "decent" portion due to lack of information, but "normal" you are not. Your abnormality may actually be used to your advantage, but first you've got to acknowledge this obvious fact.

I don't know what you are saying. If your strategy is to take the signal on a bar close, then your back test should do the same, as BigBubba suggested. If your strategy is to take the signal intra-bar, then again, your back test should do the same. So, what is the problem?

I don't know what you are saying. The January 44 QQQQ Put registered a 300% gain today.

Do you expect people not to laugh at that? I am bouncing between the states of total disbelief and hysteria.

See, you are back to your train of thought. Look, whether I found anything that "works" doesn't change anything about the merits of back testing. Think of it this way: it works 100% for eliminating the systems that do not work.

I backtested it precisely as specified in the original post of that thread, and I also tried a few variations, as suggested to me. If you have an alternative interpretation of that system description, I'd be happy to test it as well.

I don't know what you mean by "discretionary elements". If that means that a trader buys and sells on a "gut feel", then you are right, you can't back test this. Pretty much everything else other than a gut feel can be tested. In regards to your Linda Raschke argument, I'd point out that...

Ah, OK. I'll keep the secret. :)

Good bye.

What is a "currenct"? Currency, contract, current, correct? What does it mean to set R/S zone by "yourself"?

As a consolation, I'd note that the original "simple profitable method" after which you apparently named your thread does not withstand the scrutiny of a back test either.

If you are aiming for simplicity, why not toss a coin and place a trade based on its outcome. If you aim to make money, you'll realize that a method without a back test doesn't exist. If you see an article that says that "The simplest thing to do to prevent cancer is to cut your hair short...

Let us not. In case you have not noticed, SPX already traded above your "top". So, if you still want to talk about the tops (yet to come), start another thread, and we'll discuss it there. OK, sweetie?

Ah, yes, the HBO documentary "500 Sluts 'n Prostitutes". I watched it the other night. Here is my favorite quote from this flick: "Napalm, son. Nothing else in the world smells like that. I love the smell of napalm in the morning." How about "Russell 2000"? That's another good one.

The candle highs do look strange on your chart. INTC traded at 21.33 at 19:55 EST. They announced today that earnings fell 35%.

I guess you still don't know what ES stands for.

My list of top 3 includes Thorn, Madrid9, and BlueStreek. They define ET for what it is: a largerly mindless entertainment and meaningless drivel.

Hehe. You are starting to sound a lot like madrid9. Nothing wrong with that, as long as you are comfortable playing the role of an ET clown with all the "guarantees" about how the market will act. That aside, the noise-to-content ratio of your posts has exceeded the threshold of 99%, guaranteed.

How did the probability go from 1% to 75% in one day? And who is Thorn?

I am looking for a good measure of risk to use for evaluation of my trading strategies. I looked at various existing standard trading stats measures, and they looked unsatisfactory to me. Here is a summary (by no means complete): 1. Largest drawdown. Suppose you compare two systems, A and B...