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I've read a lot of articles from this guy and he always have a logical view with good points. But bear in mind that he's a known permabear and his nick name in chinese is "Air Force One" where "Air" also means "empty or selling short" in chinese.

HSI may "lead" the US market sometimes because of its large foreign capital presence. Sometimes I see significant futures and cash divergence in the afternoon and more often than not it has some follow thru in the US market usually because of some surprised figures. It makes sense because some...

Even buying futures will only get us the same result as buying UNG. The above crude oil example of $33.5 low was the Feb contract and today's price of $66.5 is the July contract. So during that time we would have to rolled over a few times and lost part of the profit (with each roll over it cost...

If the above post is too long here's the short version: If you buy UNG and hold it for 18 months, all you get is just a breakeven even if Natgas doubles in price. This will be extremely frustrating to people who're not aware of the contango situation.

We're trying to buy natural gas here. The spot price (the real stuff) of NatGas today is 3.55 as we speak. The July future contract is trading at $3.9, the August contract $4.01, Sep $4.1 ...etc all the way to Jan 2010 $5.95. The price of the future is higher due to cost of carry, interest, and...

I meant Dec 2009 is already trading near $6 in the last post

Please beware of the Natgas contango situation. If you look at the Dec 2010 Natgas futures it's already trading at close to $6. If you buy the current futures contract you lose money each time you roll your contract over. UNG is actually buying NG futures contract and is no different...

Because of the huge contango issue I ruled out buying futures and ETFs. I figure probably the best way is to buy natural gas producer stocks. I just bought myself COP stocks... not bad getting it at 1/2 the price of what Warren Buffet paid :) I am going to hold it for as long as interest...

I want to buy nat gas as well at this price level but the huge contango rules out futures and ETF as a viable vehicle for longer term (months or years) investment. Anyone has any idea to hold nat gas long term?

Problem is they don't have the money to buy. As their trade surprise shrink they have less USD to buy debt. Simple.

I don't understand isn't this what the bill is supposed to be - to throw money from a helicopter? They can't really throw it away from a helicopter and have to somehow spend it and the bill seems to be a pretty comprehensive a-bit-of-everything spending list?

Many bankers got the biggest bonus ever in 2008 because they're afraid they won't have the chance once the banks are nationalized. The money they got from gov went straight to bonuses. This is ridiculous but that's how things work.

the problem with futures contract now for long term position is the super contango we have with crude right now. The price of the 2010 contract is more like $60 now rather than $4x the spot is. So you have to pay $60 if you want to go long term. It clearly spells the spot price is a...

$1200 Trillions??? Where does it come from???

I'm thinking... if the gov gives everyone a million dollar then I really need to store up bullions now. If they do that they will successfully promote high (or hyper) inflation and they would likely confiscate all gold from civilians (futures contracts, etf, paper gold, gold in deposit box)...

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2009/01/20/us-and-uk-on-brink-of-debt-disaster/ very good analysis... question is how do we protect ourselves from having our savings wiped out gold???

May I ask what would be a "low end" size to open an account with Newedge? thx.

The point here is not about realized or unrealized gain. Rather it is about liquidity. Any gain (realized or unrealized) is real as long as you can turn it into money - that is there is a counter party to trade with you without significant price adversion. Many long term unrealized gains are...

Hi ML_Quant, Could you give us a general idea where the number comes from and how likely we would get there? Thanks!

Canada is going to do fine. When you divide the amount of natural resources by the number of people you will find out practically everyone is multi-millionaire. The only threat is the US. Right now the US is using funny money to buy all the natural resources from Canada and the middle east...