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Deep pockets have shown their cards. If they are willing to step in while there is extreme pessimism, it pays to be on their side IMO. Emotion and logic are not necessary here. Follow their lead.

ahhhhh The daily double bottom defibrillator liquidity boost has kicked in. That massive shot of repo had to go somewhere. Now if only they can keep the patient alive.

One more graphic depiction of sentiment extremes. Volatility is at an extreme high on s&p 500. I wish I had more data length to compare for summation index. For the period shown in the diagram, it's a pretty darn reliable indicator. Summation index is a commonly used breadth indicator. In this...

market makers provide liquidity for both sides. Depending on how they see order flow, they may step in and buy the sellers dumping. Or they may add to the selling by shorting. Either way, they are there to provide the balance that wouldn't exist if it was just pure retail sellers and buyers...

FED injected 24bil about 3X normal magnitude of overnight repos (unusually large). ECB injected 130Bil Sentiment indicators are at massive extreme lows. I wouldn't doubt Paulson has given China some advice as to how to diversify their 1 trillion in cur xchange assets. Don't discount...

that lack of liquidity is really annoying. It's so sensitive to spyders, every favorable .1 move on spy is like a 10c gap on the ask or bid. Slippage loses the allure of scalping. Why can't they match the liquidity of sds?

That hero, Richard Whitney, head of Richard Whitney & Co., was brother of George Whitney, Morgan Partner. Back of his action lay a noontime meeting held at No. 23 Wall St., Home of the House of Morgan. Although an excited Hearst reporter would have it that the Head of the House was present...

had to make a few more bears cry uncle, before revision to the mean.

Yield curve is inverted. Low maturity yld greater than longer maturity yld=> inversion. Economists typically use 3mo and 10yr treasury yields as standard differential for predicting recessions. It doesn't always work. Earlier this year, when differential was at min, the recession probability was...

I respect your opinion. Few points. Firstly, 2005 jan is a long time ago, in the grand scheme of things. Not a good argument for future performance. Second, "WHO feeds the analysts to arrive at consensus?" Irrelevant to argument. You could say this about all companies. Same goes for...

just breached long term cup and handle resistance. Very strong in the past few days.

broke out of flag pattern and is showing mucho strength in light of market pullback. If nasdaq takes off post fed, this one looks like a great candidate. Also, longer term is cup and handle. Earnings were great and it never got the +20% amzn treatment. I'd take this over amzn any day.

I think I found a more accurate 1st order approach to calculating the probability for a rate cut using FF contract for august. 5.25% * (7/31) + [5.0%p + 5.25%(1 - p)] * (24/31) = 5.22% Where 5.22% = 100 - 94.78 (current contract) p = probability of 1/4 pt. cut to 5% => p(1/4 pt cut) =...

I wasn't sure how they translated probability from ff contracts, so i assumed it was pretty close to zero (since 5.25-5.21 is so small). But, from what you are saying, it seems that they simply use a linear scale to predict it. I see 94.79 on CBOT ZQ close, so it comes to about 16% using a...

Ok, so everyone is wondering if the fed will step in and cut rates next week. Some probabilities are: Fed res bank Cleveland: 85.6% No Cut Fed Funds Contracts: ~100% No Cut <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?postid=1555574" border="0" alt=""><br...

For those of you following the liquidity cycle thread, I'm always looking for ways to see where we are on that curve. Originally, I've suggested that we might be about 1/4 - 1/2 way below the pk. With regards to more objective tools on how close we are to a recession trough, I found the...

Monthly : Long term (1990-present) correlation weak short term (2004-present) very strong <img src="http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1553121" border="0" alt=""><br /></font></p></font></p> I don't trade forex, but have at the data. You'd get better correlation...

kin, you gotta get drunk more often. Best call I've seen in the last few days.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070801/dow_jones_murdoch.html?.v=23 Say goodbye to barron's bearish slant. I really did enjoy abelson's witty prologues.

I almost fell off the chair laughing when I saw the second chart. That is hilarious. Thanks for lightening up a bad situation. Time to go get my beer now.