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Black swans are so rare and so unpredictable that they're arguably not worth hedging against. But they are worth anticipating and reacting to - anticipating by following trends and setting stop-losses, reacting by closing exposed positions and getting into cash or alternative trades. Following...

TA on smallcaps is unreliable. Its like taking a public opinion poll with a sample size that is just too small and which contains some radical fanatics and agitators.

A crash is always possible but it isn't going to be an overnight event, it will play out over a period of time. Its a process, not an event. The recovery might take longer than the crash. Most investors set time horizons on their investments which are too short to allow guaranteed recovery from...

The purpose of TA is to show a percentage probability of what the market will do but an absolute certainty of what the trader will do. Its not possible to separate the chart pattern from the trader. It is facile of writers to express that a given chart pattern has a win rate of XX%: in reality...

Long-term the US indices are always bulls. But that's only helpful to investors on multi-decade horizons. For trading not bullish enough yet for me, and I never short them. Its only a matter of time, perhaps only another week or so.

Get a good lawyer? But really it depends on the type of trouble you're having and the country you're in.

I like rules of this kind but I think yours concerning the 50 and the 200 are too relaxed for a trader and too tight for an investor. Why would an investor look at the 50? Why would a trader look at the 200? In general I always close if price closes below the 50, then sit back and re-assess.

I am sure that I have more faith in people than in your God. Look at it this way. People will consider me evil if I do evil things to people. But your God considers me evil if I simply have no faith in him or his power. I don't set up another god or gods in his place, I don't do anything evil...

I don't honestly know. But now you mention it I am sure I could not condemn anyone to damnation on the basis of their beliefs.

Of course praying cannot help win in the markets. If I pray for profits and get them, its only at the expense of other market participants who are now losing. This harms them and their families. I can't pray for someone else to be harmed for my personal benefit. In fact, I wonder if praying...

There are only two strategy types - buy because price has been rising, or sell because price has been rising. I suppose to be absolutely truthful there is a third strategy type - buy because price has not been rising but hasn't been falling either.

If you only have the data you describe, you can't know without looking at a chart. But there are demo accounts from almost every broker out there that will do this for you.

I agree with your points, except that wide stop-losses mean larger losses. Once you know the distance between your entry and stop-loss you can adjust the size of the position, so that e.g. its more pips but fewer £ per pip, leaving a risk exactly the same as when a tight stop is set. With a wide...

Most people using MA crossovers mean it is where two MA's cross. They take the crossover as a signal to buy if the shorter period MA crosses above the longer period MA, and a signal to sell when it crosses below. When a short MA is above a long MA, this is evidence of recently rising prices and...

I actually say its not lagging - its worse than that, its irrelevant.

MA's are great at confirming the set-up relative to trends. I think that's all they're good for. So for example - crossovers are a rubbish entry system price/MA crossovers are a rubbish exit system multiple MA bands are just a cosmetic over-complification

MA's are very useful in confirming trend existence, direction and consistency. But my advice is to try and move on from using crossovers as entry signals, they're very poor at timing entries. The point in time at which the crossover prints is not late or lagging recent price action, it is...

I'm not convinced there is anything in our price charts that deserves to be called noise and airbrushed out. All price action shows something, even if it is simply that nothing big has been happening. But that can be useful to know too. All price action also suggests changes in the probability...

I use several EMA's to confirm trend before taking a trade, by verifying the position of price relative to the EMA's and the EMA's to each other. I also only mark up swing highs and lows on the D1 chart when two consecutive days have seen price push higher or lower.

For me, the extraordinary moves seen on Friday mean one clear thing - there is about a 50% chance of early follow-through and late recovery, and a 50% chance of early recovery and late follow-through. I don't play games with a 50:50 chance of winning.