Search results

  1. Same Lazy Element

    Coronavirus, Round 2: This Virus Doesn't Give a $hit about You!

    It just sounded funny, that's all.Placing yourself in the same lineup implies equivalency, at least the way you said it. For example, one could have said "Both Moses and Jesus said to love each other, I agree with that" but if someone instead says "Moses, Jesus and I all say to love each other"...
  2. Same Lazy Element

    Randomness And Trading

    No secret there. You buy things that will go up and sell things that will go down. ps. The above recipe is true empirically - I tried doing the opposite and it did not work for me.
  3. Same Lazy Element

    Johns Hopkins: COVID Mortality Analyses

    That, of course, is not completely true. By wearing a mask, you are not filtering out the virus itself, you are filtering aerosol particles created by breathing/coughing/sneezing which contain the virus. While you are still going to be exposed, that reduces the viral load enough to significantly...
  4. Same Lazy Element

    Coronavirus, Round 2: This Virus Doesn't Give a $hit about You!

    Neither Buffer nor Musk are epidemiologists, so it's very possible they underestimate the severity of the situation. Oh, and I love how you included yourself on the same list with them :D
  5. Same Lazy Element

    Coronavirus, Round 2: This Virus Doesn't Give a $hit about You!

    Meh. It is pretty apparent from the data that age and preexisting conditions is what really matters. That is the reality, despite the media trying to convince us otherwise (and they are trying hard). Here is the dataset for the NYC...
  6. Same Lazy Element

    Stop hunting

    You have to be a broker-dealer to participate in the PFOF, it's actually a pretty large regulatory headache. Of course, hedge funds have purchased BD entities and now participate in market-making. Non-HFT players do like to see this data and sometimes pay for detailed breakdowns, although not at...
  7. Same Lazy Element

    Stop hunting

    To trigger a stop-loss, you need to trade through some level away from the current touch. Unlike canary limit-orders, these types of trades require real impact (and thus losing money) and it's hard to imagine a situation when it would be an advantageous to do so. On the other hand, informational...
  8. Same Lazy Element

    Stop hunting

    MMs can see non-marketable limits and conditional orders for some duration of time. Somehow I recall 30 seconds, but I might be thinking of something else - my recollection of Reg NMS is vary hazy and I don't play in that sandbox at all. Reg NMS has a whole set of rules about non-marketable...
  9. Same Lazy Element

    Interactive Brokers Index Arbitrage Meter

    Listed spreads are native on CME, there are separate order books that have the same mechanics (order types, queue priority etc) as outright instruments. Same goes for the "relative products" such as BTIC, for example. Some instruments have an implied spread order system that will match...
  10. Same Lazy Element

    The economics expert with no degree

    I suspect she was (IIRC, she right away admitted that she was wrong) but there is no reason for her to dwell on it and it's a mistake that plenty of people can make. For example, I do not remember the first names of Ito, Black, Scholes et al despite their work being a cornerstone of my...
  11. Same Lazy Element

    Interactive Brokers Index Arbitrage Meter

    You're welcome. It's not rocket science, most of these things are fairly straightforward and you pick them up by osmosis if you work in the industry. I have to caveat that I've never worked on an index arb desk and only know these things from dabbling in it while on the buyside - so I might be...
  12. Same Lazy Element

    Interactive Brokers Index Arbitrage Meter

    You can verify it “the hard way” - load all of the SPX stocks, model the divs and see if the numbers make sense. Actual index arb is hard to do, is very sensitive to funding and, most importantly, is relatively thin. If I were looking for alpha in that space and was ok with capacity...
  13. Same Lazy Element

    Interactive Brokers Index Arbitrage Meter

    It will converge, barring changes in dividends or funding rates (delta-one desks are usually funded at OIS plus a spread so some of the fluctuations is due to that). However, I fail to see how you plan to make money on that unless you can buy the full basket to replicate the index (that’s what...
  14. Same Lazy Element

    Interactive Brokers Index Arbitrage Meter

    If I had to guess, it's OIS for rates and they use announced divs for the companies. It's the same methodology as Bloombergs fair model - it's OK most of the time but tends to miss stuff like moved dates or dividend changes. PS. Unless you can trade EFP, it's hard to take advantage of these...
  15. Same Lazy Element

    Implied Volatility values

    3.3% x 16 = 52.8%. Looks reasonable at the first glance.
  16. Same Lazy Element

    what advantages Long Gut over Strangle?

    LOL, what? :D
  17. Same Lazy Element

    Am I Wasting My Time?

    A super-obvious example is mis-priced corporate actions like subscription rights or stubs. Usually, these are not big enough to get involved for bigger players and yet you can make pretty reasonable returns.
  18. Same Lazy Element

    Brazil's President Bolsonaro vetoes COVID-19 aid for Indigenous

    Extrapolating the death rates from the NYC stats, he has roughly 1 in 5 chance of kicking the bucket *. It certainly would be karma in action if it happens :D PS. see NYC COVID-19 data here: https://github.com/nychealth/coronavirus-data/blob/master/by-age.csv PPS. invincibility of the...
  19. Same Lazy Element

    Fully Automated Stocks Trading

    There are two rather distinct approaches to this problem (speaking from institutional perspective). One is to think in terms of alpha factors instead of strategies/systems - that means identifying whatever features/patterns give positive expectation to a particular stock and using them to...
Back
Top