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Well, after the dot.com collapse, people began to realize that we should invest in real stuff, and guess what is more real than the real-estate? So people poured money into real-estate. similarly, in 1972-73, after the collapse in 1969-70 of the high growth concepts, people began to circle...

The house market today is very similar to the nifty-fifty in the 70s. Both occurred after a major stock market collapse (1969-70 and 2001-2002), and amid secular bear markets. Both were considered safe heaven when other assets became too volatile. And, unfortunately, both will be taken out and...

james simons

That probably means that it didn't do very well. Empirica's method seems to have been copied by some Hong Kong banks. Your invest most (95%) in T-bills, and use the interests to buy deep-out-of-the-money calls on equities, and hope to win a black swan reward.

FNM/FRE has two business, the portfolio (which they maintain mortgages for themselves) and the so-called guaranty (which is like the insurance against fore-closure) . Portfolio contributes 80% of the revenue. The trouble is that Greenspan and the government want to kill the portfolio...

Both views (TA or fund) can be correct, depending your time frame and strategy.

If I am a straight buyer/holder, I will not even hold it. There is too much political risk in FNM/FRM.

This is the strongest statement from Greenspan, the Mr. Bubble, himself on the house bubble. Only last yr, Mr. Bubble was prasing the adjust-rate mortgages as a means for house affordbility.

FNM will rise relative to FRE, but this could take a long time.

pair trading

welcome back.

China has its share of border disputes with its neighbors, and as happened with many countries, military conflicts occurred.

Is it illegal for citadel to do this?

how is his bet against US dollor? Did he cover his short?

Agreed. A thoughtful observation. The chinese notion of marketing is "sell more and sell cheaper". They don't seem to have any idea of price power of Buffet.

No, I think it's a slang for sushi.

If I understand it correctly, chinese law only allow foreigners to buy B-shares, which right now trades at a discount to the A-shares.

To put things into perspective, some overseas institutions entered China recently. Bill Gates Foundation recently invested in China equity markets heavily. But they refused to disclose what they buy. The last week's Barron mentioned that many hedge funds opened offices in China...

Who knows. On the other side, the rise of AD is a bullish sign.

Thank you. In fact, I doubt anyone will disclose his/her research if it really works in the market (well, except possibly Andy Lo of MIT).