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And so it begins. After a year and more of extremely low volatility, a breakout: This should be a very good year for commodities in general. Each of course has its own issues, but overall, playing it via an ETF like this one should be a good way to go.

Sunday afternoon doodling: GDX and GLD P&F charts. I do mine w/2% boxes. Other than that, same as the default. As expected, GDX shows a breakout, while GLD has yet to show a breakout higher. Miners leading the metal, which is what's supposed to happen. Expecting some sort of pullback soon, as...

Average realized vol on the S&P since Jan 1990, the first period for which you can get history for the VIX, equals 15.77, with a median of 13.44. So you could use those as your reference points for where realized vol will tend to mean revert. But if you just download everything back to 1950...

http://time-price-research-astrofin.blogspot.com/2013/12/geocentric-and-heliocentric-bradley.html A site for this stuff, apparently. The geomagnetic field is quiet, it says here. Not sure what that has to do with the price of tea in China, but there you are.

Name one. I'm just curious who you'd come up with.

Yeah yeah yeah. Fed bashing is everyone's fave sport, I know. Just tell me when you exit and if it was at a profit, as I'll be doing.

+764.42 Another mediocre day. Front of the curve fell off more than the back, as is usual when decompressing from a scare like that EM one we just went through. On the plus side, I kept to my mighty oath not to touch the S&P. So far, that resolution has lasted all of one trading session. I...

That's what everyone thinks. Everyone also thinks the Fed is effective. Neither are true, but then most people have never read Galbraith (old, dead, and worst of all, Keynesian) and never even heard of Paul Einzig (all three of the above AND a freakin Brit to boot) nor would they even...

I think you're being suicidal, but that's alright. Just because I'm feeling generous, or something, some data: Cleveland Fed's Inflation Expectations Page. What counts here is the real interest rate. In the Excel you can download at the bottom of the page is the 1 month and 1 year real...

Already past that, at 1306 as I write this. As usual, both the bulls and bears in the gold mkt completely misunderstand the underlying reason for why it moves. Which is fine, since in the gap created by that misunderstanding is always where I've made my money with this asset.

Nice job on ES. Tricky day today, at least for me.

+823.79. Whipsawed again by the S&P this morning, turned what should have been a good day into just a mediocre one. Very annoying. I think I'm going to avoid trying to hedge with that index. Even VXX would be better, I think. OK, I exaggerate, but maybe only a little....

P&F. Simple, stupid, all you need.

Ted Cruz or Rand Paul would be like Goldwater all over again. But by now that's needed. The Dems did McGovern once, and never went back to that well. Goldwater was eight years before that, so I guess by now, as most of those who can remember what a disaster that was for the Repubs are gone, it's...

Minor giveback on most fronts. Dull day, kinda like watching grass grow. Just barely positive.

All the base metals got a bump on the China import/export numbers just released. I guess it would be correct to assume you guys don't believe those numbers?

Mkt's up 1% or more in three of the last four trading sessions.

OK, I think I have the thesis you and syswizard are favoring: off exchange hoarding, deliberately done, that will quickly be revealed if the price rises. Is that it, or is there something else? I wouldn't be surprised re copper, as like any other industrial commodity it's subject to...

I just took a look at the prices for this, and it looks slightly backwardated, maybe flat is a better description. Doesn't that suggest a supply deficit as of now, or am I missing something?

+1654.72 SDS hurt again today, finally looked at the last few days of action and decided to chuck it in favor of more hedging in the front of the VIX curve, as it certainly qualifies as a breakout. I'm sure I'll regret it. Oh well. Mildly in the black for the year as of today. If the debt...