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  1. efficiency

    How do you determine your max bet size?

    2% of capital (or individual account size)/2 times the 20 day Average True Range
  2. efficiency

    What happen to TLT in April 2009?

    Secular top in long bonds. Inverse to 1981. B4 your time. However, US was not nearly as dependent on foreign capital in 1981. That aside, what's a 30 year face value really worth 30 years from now irrespective of price fluctuation? Carnage? sssssss. It's just beginning. Wow (or...
  3. efficiency

    SPY, XLF, IYT - charts indicate that the Bottom is IN!

    Yeah, "V" bottoms are highly reliable. And, island gaps are random, like............like...............like...........toadstools under a tree. Always somebody on the other side of the trade.
  4. efficiency

    Oil/Energy ETF's

    I don't recommend, I dissuade. I did mention UAG. Gasoline. Head & shoulders bottom (but ONLY on a point & figure chart). As for oil, USL rolls over differently. Research it. However, volume is a mere fraction of USO. Hence wider spreads. You seem do be itchin' for action. Isn't...
  5. efficiency

    Oil/Energy ETF's

    Broken, no. You're on the wrong side of a contango as the underlying futures contracts are rolled over. Each succeeding expiration is about 5 bucks apart (higher). This is "by design" because of the sheer volume of USO comprised of amateurs seduced by a bargain. Until the contango works in...
  6. efficiency

    Ron Insana Leaves SAC

    Dizzy bitch. Ya think he and Cohen's personalities would have..........eh......clashed? CNBC: Let's bring him (and Consuelo Mack) back. Gee, that rhymed.
  7. efficiency

    holding DDM for the long haul

    Whoa. Such scathing words. The way you gauge a professional is how you pay your taxes, not a chest-pounding self-proclamation. Ditto for dinking with levered ETF's. Simple answer, you watch it because everyone else does. Only 30 stocks, Not representative of "industry". Couple shills...
  8. efficiency

    Oil/Energy ETF's

    UAG. Forward contracts on unleaded gasoline. Head & shoulders bottom, less volume means ease of movement, driving season forthcoming. Not quite yet though.
  9. efficiency

    Does volume figure into your trading?

    Up past resistance? Hmmm, explain to me FALSE break outs. It will establish a "new" resistance point, but aren't we striving for extraction of profit? . I've got an abundance of charts with a breakout that reverted back into a triangle. My opinion, the sharper the break up, the weaker it...
  10. efficiency

    Does volume figure into your trading?

    Nope, it's an AFTER the fact measure. It does NOT drive price. Certainly not the open. Open might create volume that otherwise wouldn't occur. Volume will influence certain particpants, perhaps including yourself. Price is price. It's what we all transact in. And........MAE, and MFE...
  11. efficiency

    Does volume figure into your trading?

    Your last two words, "some value". I'd concur with that, thus rendering "it" as a filter. OI only pertains to contracts. Some of us only deal in shares. One less unknown variable in terms of time decay. You brought up average adverse excursion. Good point! I religiously record my...
  12. efficiency

    Does volume figure into your trading?

    No follow-through today, sooooooooo, I'm gonna run with it. Flavor of the thread is VOLUME, not the specialist. However "it" does come from participants. That's you, me, and "him". Basic question: Does volume have PREDICTIVE qualities? You know, a conisistent, reliable edge we're...
  13. efficiency

    Does volume figure into your trading?

    Wow, a nibble, Not all of us are scalpers. A teenie isn't my gain or loss. It's my slippage. So are you going to harp on the demise of the ax due to decimalization, the growing influence of ECN's, GlOOOBALIZATION, or what? I will concede the complexion has changed since about 1970...
  14. efficiency

    Does volume figure into your trading?

    "Only" ...........strong word. Can you say narrow mind? I've got a cat that, when sitting in front of an aquarium, will lunge at anything that moves. Seems to stay entertained. Ahhh, but does he ever catch anything? I guess I shouldn't talk, rather than money, I come here for...
  15. efficiency

    Does volume figure into your trading?

    Can't pass this one up, Mister Ross. Not sure what timeframe you're referring to. You use the word contracts, but contracts have underlying elements. In a capitulation move, yes high volume would suggest strong hands. NYSE specialist and how he acquires dirt cheap inventory quickly comes...
  16. efficiency

    Asia may start dumping Treasuries

    The operative word is "may". I'm not referring to the month of May.
  17. efficiency

    Buffett says US in 'economic Pearl Harbor'

    Here's a chart Euler. In the context of buy and hold, what the media associates him with. Would be hard to trade BRK due to liquidity (both volume and spread). As such net price change should speak for itself. $84,000 to $90,600 over 10.5 years works out to .72% per annum. Nominal...
  18. efficiency

    Markets should be open every day

    Assuming by "markets" YOU mean equities, then my remark is: you really don't understand WHO you trade against. Opens serve a distinct purpose..........move away from a basis. Inventory posture. Closes serve a purpose.................create an illusion. Particularly Friday's close...
  19. efficiency

    Is this right time to Short PALM?

    I'd call the attached an 8 year base and skewed risk/reward ratio. All the shares are owned long by somebody(s). Not some, not most, all. And........in the case of shares short, they have TWO owners. Identified prey irrespective of the CBOE. It's always fun to play for chump change...
  20. efficiency

    Buffett says US in 'economic Pearl Harbor'

    LOL all the little munchkins on here that can't spell Buffett. Hmmm, maybe they're referring to an all-you-can-eat diner in a northern suburb of Detroit. Warren's notorious for sweetheart deals. LVLT and MLI come to mind. He also fucks up. US Air and Munsingwear (before your time kiddies)...
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