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they actually recommend to exit when the loss goes beyond 2X max credit

make a newsletter revealing every week 1 or 2 shitcoins that will go bust and a link to your website, where you reveal to paid subscribers ALL the shitcoins to avoid. If the predictions of the newsletter are consistent, eventually somebody will subscribe.

my biggest loss ever was while I was still following the tasty trade method.. sell strangles at 30Delta OTM, roll up one strike, roll out the other, protective stop at 2X max credit yada yada yada.. Then you get caught in a 5-sigma move, your stop does not trigger and your are blown out of the...

Hey Chef, So far on ET the general consensus seems to be that for equities it is sticky strike. On Sinclair's book he says that actually it's a blend of both. Predominantly sticky strike when the market is range bound and transitioning more towards sticky delta when trending. Intuitively it...

thanks a lot guys, you gave me a lot of things to think about. To be more precise regarding my situation: my underlying is an index ETF. My original idea was to use the surface to understand when the wings were overpriced vs the center and vice versa, and see if there was some sort of pattern...

Cool! My question became blog material!

@jamesbp thanks for the inputs.. regarding the first two suggestions, the name gatheral sends shivers down my spine (I'm no phd!), and Peter Hoadley uses cubic spline interpolation, which is fancy, but still an interpolation after all. On your third suggestion however you got my interest...

The problem with options is that you need to have also an opinion about the volatility and the timing of the move, not simply about the direction. if you expect a sharp move down just buy at the money puts if you expect some sort of drift first down and then up again you could try with a call...

Hi all, recently I have been bumping my head on the vol surface (pun intended). My conundrum is: I only have data for options expiring in 1M, 2M, 4M and 6M, however with this data I would like to create a vol surface model to have an idea (for instance) of the volatility level at 3M, or at...

maybe a bit off topic but.. you should keep a journal where every day you write your thoughts about the market and some what/if analysis of likely scenarios. Before entering any positions confirm if it is consistent with what you wrote. the journal has to be paper version, no electronic things...

man, I would advise you to stay as far as possible from the china futures space. thats were all the worst abuses/insider trading cases happen. Also im not sure hows the current rule for foreigners. I know they are relaxing a bit on equities but futures is probably still a china only thing

I didnt see this post on time to cast a vote.. that would have been another "no!". I joined this forum only very recently but it didnt take long to figure out who were the people that really knew their shit.. Destriero is one of those..

@bone I'm not discussing the merits of the dispute, in fact the situation in China has been like a festering wound for so many years, sooner or later somebody had to notice the stench. What I say however is that at this point, the matter already shifted from the economic realm to the political...

I disagree on the fact that Xi is tied by the will of other party officials. The man is the equivalent of the ancient emperor, he could force the deal if he really was committed. The problem here is that both men need to be able to claim victory to their respective audiences. We humans have...

Cool stuff man!

@tommcginnis yep in the back of my mind I also suspected it was just another "glorified moving average", however there is one thing I want to believe (otherwise there is really no point in playing this game), which is that predicting the behavior of a million people should be somewhat easier...

Recently I started reading "volatility trading" by Euan Sinclair. On the chapter about forecasting RV he talks about the GARCH model, but he kind of implies that its more stuff for academics, not so reliable in practice. The main criticism is that in order to define the parameters for the...

would be interesting to backtest the likelihood of a thread derailing on ET...

as expected.. no free lunch whatsoever. now I'm happy that I just bought 1 lot... Anyways.. I will let this thing run until the next shocking tweet by mr.T , get some vega kicker and then close it out.. Will report back here how it goes..

Thanks.. ok now that you brought in the topic of interest rates I'm starting to think about it.. basically the risk profile of put vs call calendar at same strike is similar, however when you go deep ITM the spread becomes very expensive, and the extra return you get is simply the interest...