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well that puts it in the early 630's i'm modeling my ratio calender in excel as we speak if i can freaking get this to work! i wanna properly adjust the vol in the back month and measure the profit graph if there isn't a good blow out to the upside..

standard information?? we all know this

thats a big pre earnings run up 570 to 600 .. you know i think i'm just going to buy an out of the money call option.. for an upside blow out.. best risk reward.. but what about this.. Buy 3 contracts of GOOG 2012 JUL 685.00 CALL @ $0.25 $75.00 Sell 1 contract of GOOG...

thats a good idea my backspreads are with leaps.. theres no adversity to owning the TBT right? i mean it doesn't lose value like ETF's based on futures right?

i tried options oracle and it didn't work and you can't change the assumptions enough...

so there are no 100dollar bills laying around to be picked up? haha so should we start flipping a coin and steping one way on heads and the other way on tails? or are you saying there are easier targets to exploit then the cubeso

I would love to hear somebody come up with a reasonable claim to exploit the volatility in this series or a similar one... Because this trade obviously is doomed

Well you cant as soon constant volatility for one.. and it's what a static profit loss graph won't show you that will actually lose or make you money...

i'm a total noob and i can clearly see the graph looks to good to make any money! haha hiding the risk in a profit graph is exactly how to lose money... its what the profit graph won't tell you is where the money is to be made..

OP.. whats that mean manipped? 500bp? basis points?

i'm long the TBT through ratio backspreads... i thought it was the wisest choice.. gives me the best risk to reward ratio... if it doesn't go up that much.. no big deal

the STocks and Commidites had an interesting article writen about credit spreads.. it was all about Iron Condors.. which is at least some what similiar to what yoru doing.. it talked in detail about how and when to roll positions down.. which i've put on alot of credit spreads.. never rolled...

i actually totally agree with you... if your going to sell a put cash secured .. you keep the cash ready.. if i don't potientially want the obligation to take the stock then i buy a lower striked option.. All within the premise of really wanting the stock, but not wanting to expose myself to...

"although it seems that stock market investors have already taken that into consideration." hahaha

are any of you guys charting the loss due to "roll cost/contango" in the actual gas futures this etf is based in? and are you considering it in your trading and pricing of options?

wow.. how stupid am i! i was wondering why it didn't move very much! haha

I still think its all a lie Short the lie as it becomes realized Buy what a syndicate gets involved in... There's only value in growing misperceptions

i have found in many cases putting on credit spreads instead of just outright cash secured puts has reduced my credit related to my cash secured amount but enabled me to have the desicion later if the stock gets cut in have to not have to take the stock at such a loss

check it

look like the straddle that you would have sold at the close for 34 dollars or so will be worth four bucks or so on the open