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You can get pretty far with simple concepts, such as a conjunction of the mean reversion in the underlying index against the forward curve of of the futures contracts.

Another point is the key metrics or data points vary from company to company. For some it is an adjusted ebitda or gaap figure, etc. usually the analysts play along with what ever data points they are spoon fed by management.

One thing to keep in mind is that for companies that issue forward guidance, it can and often does dominate the impact of the current quarter's EPS. For example you can find a company with an EPS "beat" on earnings that still gets crushed because guidance was softer than expected. This is...

The money now for an online retail startup seems to be in being the guru or curator - helping people to make those online choices so that they don't have the anxiety of thinking for themselves but can 100% assure they will be beautiful, fashionable, trendy, etc. If you do this on a subscription...

That is true. I am a continual self improvement project. You, on the other hand are clearly at or near the top of the Forbes 400, or will be there very soon. You sound more adept at calling trends than Soros, who himself admitted continual insecurity in his ability to do so.

Yes. Certainly there is always a trending asset with the benefit of hindsight. The problem is anticipating if and when they are trending. Does a current trend imply a future trend? what are the payoffs? Those are the real problems. Its kind of like "there is always an asset that goes up...

Just stop trading until you are done grieving. Most expensive thing I ever did was attempt to trade the week after my mom died.

Honestly, you are thinking about it too much. ROI doesn't mean much unless you are looking at the total amount of capital needed to commit to the strategy. In actual trading you don't know what your % win will be going forward, you don't know the distribution of trades. Viewing it as "return...

If they are such good monopolists, we should consider the investment merits of the stocks: ICE, NDAQ, CBOE, CME, BATS, LDNXF, DBOEF, OTCM for starters

Right. The issue is that on net the "vested interests" who do not (at least overtly) break the rules are much better capitalized and have better technology than guys (relatively speaking) on the margin like this poor fellow. This means that if it was not against the rules, the vested interest...

The problem with spoofing is not that there is something inherently wrong with it. Or at least it is a debatable issue - some have even argued that it is helpful to the markets: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2015-01-23/high-frequency-trading-spoofers-and-front-running. The...

There are no dumb questions. Questions (seeking knowledge) is inherently honorable. There are are only dumb answers.

I am a big fan of long dated in the money calls for large cap stocks that I plan to hold for a time. Great technique for leveraging an IRA account.

I find pushing beyond 40% annual return difficult while leaving a margin of safety with regards to blow ups, even in the best of circumstances. And this is trading in a way that most would find very aggressive. I have had times where I new I could "easily" go for 100%, based on my analysis...

I have listened to much that same message in IBKR's quarterly calls for at least 3 years. IBKR is not arrogant, but rather trying to run a large business in a way that is consistent with regulation, fair execution and also risk control for the broker itself - all at very low cost to the trader...

Yes. Agree with this random fellow: Minute 10 is a good starting point.

I think the OP's point is a very good one. The problem is that so much of the discussion for retail traders is dominated by vendors selling a canned philosophy or solution, or money managers proffering their specific approach. Here is an interesting question - If you followed the "results" of...

That is very true. You have hit upon a truth. Obsessing about stop placement or "risk reward ratio" is kind of like watching the shadow of something vs. the thing itself. Plus, if you want to be a big trader "stops" don't scale well.

ids, Where can we find the overnight margin for futures that applies to IRA accounts

The value of a cash flow "from here to eternity" is extremely sensitive to changes in the discount rate used. Consider a perpetuity - an annuity that receives an infinite amount of periodic payments. The formula = payment amount / discount rate. Consider the present value of a dollar: $1...