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You're arguement makes ZERO sense! OK, so the USDA report doesn't say how much of the crop was destroyed by the flooding, I get that. But why do you think corn went up by 27% in June? It wasn't because of the bigger supply/demand picture, I would say that the 70%+ gain for the year pretty much...

I'd think that common sense WOULD dictate a pullback and that this down move is taking the 'emotion' out of the market. 2 sides to every coin.

Limit down

The key will be the 720 area. Looks like a nice battle going on right now, I wonder where it ends the day.

What would you consider all that much? A reduction in import tax on sugar based ethanol is not out of the question. It's a distinct possibility the longer oil stays high. The arguements for allowing Brazilian sugar ethanol into our markets are huge.

Corn bulls last hope is that the flooding destroyed a huge percentage of corn crops. Low 600's by August!

I can't see anything in this report thats bullish.

Over short time frames, normal distributions with a bit of negative kurtosis is a good approximation. I agree over longer time frames this is no longer true.

Central banks from around the world are talking tough and actually doing something about it by raising rates. This defacto means that the Fed is cutting rates by standing still. At the very least the Fed needs to match the ECB hike for hike to be on even keel. I'm a firm believer that the...

I've still got my core short in the 760's avg . Looking for the spot to add more to this. Been able to offset this move with my long in wheat but not fully. It's always scariest at the top or bottom. My most exciting position at the moment by far!

I use statistics and volatility analysis extensively. I don't normally go against a trend but my analysis showed it being a good risk to reward trade. That said, it's not the easiest strategy to stomach but historically I've made much more on these types of trades than trend following ones.

You're right now that I look at it again. Not sure what happened but when I started to short corn I just looked up the contracts on my bloomberg.

I'm trading the September contract. I just look for the one with the bigest open interest and highest daily volumes.

I started trading Wheat from the long side 4 days ago, but I reckoned it wasn't controversial enough to start a new thread.

FXTrader101, I had a very simple question regarding what your expected drawdown might be and you can't seem to give me a straight answer. I'd hate to even ask you what kind of volatility an investor should expect.

I still maintain my core short and I'm only trading from the short side. But the vol is so good you just have to play the ranges a bit too. Front month/back month, too complicated for me! Good luck to us both.

Yes, I added just under 740 and covered half on the spike down to 720. Will add again on any spikes up. Up over 20k so far in this trade thanks.

Yes I like to keep it simple for people like you. In the example you state, your drawdown would be 30%. And even that isn't correct as you said you wouldn't risk more than 10% of your account on each trade. If you were to actually work it out, 100%-10%-10%-10% does not equal 70%. It's getting...

So what you're saying is that you will have one losing trade but the next trade is always a winner and that winner is always greater than 10%. You sound like you've never traded before. If you only make one trade a day, I suggest you jsut post your trades here.

FX, do you not understand what drawdown is? How many of these 10% loses can u expect to take in a row?