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might be an asymmetric long for next fomc on 3/16, when the market is already pricing in 25-50 bpt raise. until then.. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

I don't recall posting that. anyhow, I wasn't trying to dig at your post, just trying to understand what you mean. the post can easily be interpreted as just showing up and trade, without planning or preparation the night before, especially with the way you wrote about taking out the guess work...

until crypto resumes an uptrend and go on another euphoric rally to draw in more retail investors, coin is going to continue to dump most likely. it's a matter of time, but we're in the opposite of a risk on environment, which is bad for risk on assets like crypto.

Can you elaborate what is meant by reading the markets? It seems a direct contrast to what most educators preach to developing traders of sticking to fewer setups, wait for the trades to come to you, and not try to make money everyday.

Doesn't seem like the market would care about that anymore than it cares about what the fed might be doing in reaction to higher oil prices. https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/live-markets-what-history-says-about-geopolitics-market-2022-02-18/

Does this remind you guys of late 2018?

That's what I need to do better at. I've been lazy about it, or at least haven't developed the right habits..

mostly looking at daily/weekly time frames, and using intraday charts like 1h/15m for entries/management. I focus on breakouts (or breakdowns) after consolidation, and like to anticipate them for better r/r. But I've been frequently finding myself trading outside of that strategy, not following...

I think I've been spending way too much time listening to noise or trying to find the next trade ideas, and not enough time sitting down and figuring out what I'm doing wrong, what my sticking points are, studying my setups, etc. What have you guys found to be good allocations of time dedicated...

the volume on the atm weekly options are always really high, quite frequently higher than the open interest. what's going on here?

i don't get it

https://www.tastytrade.com/definitions/calculating-expected-move#:~:text=Expected%20move%20is%20the%20amount,close%20to%20the%20expiration%20date. the weekly expected move tells you likely hood of a stock/index stays inside a certain range based on implied vol of the options chain. it's...

If so, how do you use it in your trading when it comes to binary events or managing positions in a trading week. I personally use it as a gauge for likelihood continuation or pull back for the major indices within a given week and going into following week. It's helped me gain better market...

Ill rephrase with I agree most stock price action is noise but it doesn't mean you can't profit from it. There are many living proofs of this who have been around for a long time.

I agree with deaddog that chart reading is actually a skill, and your ability to distinguish charts providing good setups vs charts that don't comes with time in front of the screen. it's not just all noise. can throw publications at me, but I'll bet that the people who wrote those papers...

So the argument isn't whether trading candlesticks works or not, but pointing out that putting in the time to identify fundamental catalyst is the better way? because retail don't have enough money to move markets

So only investment banks and hedge funds get to make money because they have the best strategies, and everyone else who's profitable is just on a lucky streak? If that is the case, why is aggregate hedge fund performance always below that of the spx?

his rule is any given trade, he'll risk 0.5-1.0% of his account, which is in the upper 8 figure range I think. point is he grew it from 4-5 figures almost 10 years ago, so he's doing something right.

not sure how you arrived at your numbers. here are my quick calculations using r multiples.. How can you extrapolate his performance relative to spx when you don't know his account size and average allocation? the % moves are that of the ticker, not his account.

he's been trading since 2011, with similar returns.