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IMO, designing and testing a system on the same data is almost always worthless, or at least, very poor evidence of the viability of the system. It is surprising, but it is very easy to design a system on a year's data that trades over 300 times with a very consistent equity curve, that when...

I'm back! I haven't been trading since about the time of my last post (mostly due to adjusting to new baby, partly due to other ventures). I did a little system research in the meantime, and still haven't found anything that beats the pants off my original system, so I started it up again a...

If only... Fletch

+24% Fletch

google "four year cycle" Fletch

I am intrigued by your ideas and would like to subscribe to your newsletter. Fletch

Not backtesting is silly. Remember, even something as basic as "buy and hold" is based on a backtest. Fletch

It doesn't surprise me you couldn't win at poker, if this is an example of your ability to reason. Only someone who knows nothing about the game would think a single tournament win qualifies anybody for "the world's best" at poker. Similarly, someone who knows nothing about trading might...

As opposed to poker, where the skill sets involved to be profitable are... what? You tried to figure the game out and couldn't. No shame in admitting defeat. Congratulations on your success in trading. Of course you will find as many people who will say trading is pure luck...

So, how much are you stuck? Fletch

I suspect I have played 100x as much online poker as you have, and I "don't know what you mean." (as in, you're talking nosense). What's in their best interests is a fair deal, which is what all the major sites verifiably have. Nonsense. Show me the statistically significant hard data that...

Total nonsense. Ever heard of "grinder"? That's how the vast majority of people who make money from poker do it. He's feeding you a line of bull, probably to save you because he knows you're not cut out for the game. Fletch

I know it is. A few hundred thousand hands of each. Also, dozens of other experienced to professional players with the same conclusion. Intuitively, it also makes sense. Online play is _very_ fast. The weak players go broke much quicker. Online there's fewer draws of blinky lights or...

Groan. Hint: online play is much tougher than live play at any given stakes level. Also, your samples sizes mean _nothing_. Nadda, zero, zip, zilch. Fletch

What makes you think he did? While "You Can Be a Stock Market Genius" probably touches on some of the ideas his fund used to make money, "Little Book" is just something he made up, and never used in his fund, as far as I can tell. Fletch

This is one of those things that translates from gambling games like poker. A bad player has the hardest time understanding that losing all of his money does not mean he made a mistake. In fact, there are situations where if you don't lose every penny on the table, you made a terrible...

Some possibilities: 1) Your rules were wrong, i.e., they were never positive expectation even though you thought they were 2) Your rules are right, and market action was a statistical outlier last week 3) The dynamics of the market - that your rules depend on - have changed, making your...

Right, like Renaissance Tech. All scientist chumps who can't trade their way out of a paper bag. Fletch

Of course. You will have to look at the policies of your lender, but it is just a loan, much like any other. Of course. You cannot get a margin call if you have no holdings on margin. Fletch

Take online poker, for example. It's not illegal, so it doesn't fit (1), and as long as the deal is fair and there is no play outside the rules of the game, I'm not sure how it can be considered dishonest. So, how is it a racket by your own definition? I don't necessarily disagree with...