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Anyone who shorts here is basically looking for a binary outcome where this localized support area is breached and we make new lows. However the potential for a short covering rally + actual smart money buying is a real risk here for the short side. If things are so doomed why are the yen and...

Yeah, you’re blue pill and he’s red pill.

Rooting for 24600 for ya. The market has a way of getting ridiculous.

Don’t forget about those gaps in SPX up around 2700. That’s the 61.8% retrace zone of both the 3/13-3/23 and 1/29-2/9 moves. Still not gonna ignore that 2460 level though. In the end though it’s probably the ten year that really matters (which isn’t dipping under 280).

I see 2654 and 2687 targets for ES off the extensions. Seems like the 1st will be hit today but I doubt the latter (we'll have to wait for the Germans to take care of that of course).

I think @Rachmaninov is thinking along the same lines, that the convexity is on the upside not the downside. I mean what's coffee going to do, break down to 90 cents/lb on the absolute best crop ever even though its been low for years now? There is downside risk of course (otherwise price...

Or better yet, look at TF all the way back to 2007 and ER2 on CME before that. I would not rely on any system that's only been working off of data since RTY was moved back to CME less than a year ago. Crazy.

I could see 2709 in ES if it gets some legs under it. Still not sure it's medium term out of the woods yet (2650ish -> up?), but i could see them buying it up to the 618 retrace atleast.

Anyway, it's not a trade you should be preemptively plowing your life savings into but it is something that people should be watching - because convexity is to the upside here.

It buys the dip or else it gets the hose again.

IMO everyone should be paying attention to NY coffee. Yes we’ve been in this situation before but it's up against a major lower channel support, desc triangle on continuous front month, and commercials long with everyone else totally short. DX and USDBRL are big factors here. Robusta is the...

Think it was low 500s in KE. Didn’t make any money on this trade.

Heh new headline: "U.S. Treasury Official Misspoke in Saying China Talks Had Ended"

You miss the point: You’re obsessed with the money factor and are counting your chickens early.

They want to sue based off the fact that a “can’t lose” trade actually lost. The warnings were made repeatedly by smart people yet greed overruled as usual. Newsflash: when VIX is at 10, going to 20 or 30 is a hell of a lot easier than VIX 40 going to 80.

“I’m on track for <insert x% annualized returns>” (Various charts of equity curves) I can tell with what you primarily focus on that you’re in for some hurt, Bobby.

Yes and 480 in KC wheat. I could see it stomping through that gap, collecting liquidity as longs bail, and then making a move up again. It’s just what markets do.

Thing about trading the action in ES today is that you really have to be aware of what it’s psychologically doing to yourself. Meaning you can totally be aware it’s chop garbage vwap-hugging nonsense but you have to explicitly tell yourself stop trading this, stop revenge trading it, just walk...

I like that target.