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If you were willing to precisely (ie: formulaically) define all of the elements to your position sizing and scaling then it would be possible to backtest.... but this is starting to feel a bit more like a statistical contracting project, so I'm not doing it, lol! To be honest, it wouldn't be...

I'm curious what kind of position sizing rules you use? Or is it discretionary?

Thanks. You're welcome.

Since I didn't receive any corrections, I'll assume I interpreted the strategy correctly. Here are the results (2012-2022): Ticker | Max Drawdown (%) | Sharpe SOXS | -93 | -0.48 SQQQ | -87 | -0.63 SOXL | -69 | -0.09 TQQQ | -51 | +0.39 UVXY | -89 | -0.78 TZA | -85 | -0.42 NIO | -30 | +0.65 DKNG...

@KCalhoun I coded it for you but need to double check... "within .2" = within 0.2% ?? PD = prior day ?? Right now I have: (1) Enter on close if close > 0.998 * max( today's high, yesterday's high ) (2) Exit on close if close < 0.998 * yesterday's low Assuming I have it right, the results are...

1) Adding to what @BMK said, some stocks don't have options. If you want a short position on one of these, you have no other choices.

Yeah, it could be done with the benefit of hindsight.... or it could be done with the benefit of foresight. Many on this forum have done so repeatedly. Bitcoin's cycle is also shorter - just 4 years. Why four years? Because it follows the halving cycle. Will it happen again? Nobody knows...

I'll play... When should I cover? (Profit target, time held, etc.?) Do you recommend a stop? What level? I ask because you say your "probability of being correct is more than 75%" (which I hope means you've at least backtested some idea and it returns profits 75% of the time...which still...

I see. Thanks. :) That's the reason why it's only $70k, though.

Hard to believe that was a futures contract. Not saying you're wrong, but it is surprising. Which contract is it and from which exchange? Could be useful...

LOL. Fair point, although I imagine the futures probably hit ~$75K. They'll often trade at a premium of up to about 20% during a bull market. (And if you want to nitpick, newwurldman did say "short 1mm coins", so SunTrader is right! :) )

If you absolutely insist on a 'continuous contract' you could try an ETF that is composed of futures that the fund managers actively roll for you. Of course, there's a fee embedded for this service... You'll have to look into the fine print, though. A quick look at USO, for example, shows it...

Yeah, as of yesterday his net worth was down to "only" $991 million. He's not broke (yet). https://cryptoslate.com/sam-bankman-frieds-net-worth-fell-93-in-1-day-loses-billionaire-status/ Someone with access to a Bloomberg Terminal could confirm definitively, but at the above link they state...

Ah, I see. I should have known. Poking fun seems to be a major form of entertainment on ET for a bunch of you. *shrug* LOL, well that explains a lot!! John's reply may have made more sense to you if you had seen Max's. In any case, enjoy the Mediterranean sea today. I like to enjoy it...

Well, I don't know about that.... the LINK was about an exchange, but your text was about the US midterms (slightly provocative) and bitcoin's price dropping. "The post was initially about an exchange" seems a little rich to me. Then @johnarb replied to @maxinger about his return, not even...

This is the first time I've ever seen @johnarb discuss a profit he made while short a crypto. I don't think he "brags so much about [it]." (NB: I'll be the first to admit I don't read all the posts and may have missed something.)

Hmm.... maybe we should monitor the timing of major law enforcement seizures to predict asset price peaks, LOL!

The key is being able to tell the difference between 'curve fitting' and legitimate (ie useful) statistics. There's a lot of garbage out there...

For the curious but lazy (that's me sometimes), the wire fraud resulted in theft of bitcoin worth about $500,000 at the time it occurred (Sept 2012) and $3.36B at the time of seizure (Nov 9, 2021).

I'll go first. I would like to point out that I am neither a bitcoin lover nor a bitcoin hater. There is both good and bad to bitcoin. My job, however, is to leave personal biases out of my predictions as best as I can so as to focus on maintaining profitability. 1. From my perspective...