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  1. M

    Index Futures in the Off-Hours

    I see. Gold and Silver is actually really good to trade in the asian session untill 2hrs into London session. I think it makes sense to have a TA - approach to do this and use the correlation/flow fallout from active markets. Scalping the US markets with the DOM overnight doesn't make much...
  2. M

    Index Futures in the Off-Hours

    I asume you trade the "overnight" session in the respective markets. I think this thread is more about trading the US markets AH, whereas I guess you actually trade the active markets in their repective timezone?
  3. M

    Index Futures in the Off-Hours

    I also looked into it, but it does not fit my style, tbh. I trade short term and rely on liquidity to get my fills. The biggest advantage is the lack of algo action, especially those anoying ETF - Arb bots that flip bid/offer a million times without trading anything. The correlation bots are...
  4. M

    Are the probabilities on SpreadHacker real?

    You should google "probability vs expected value" Thank me later ;)
  5. M

    Ritchie - Web Site Update

    As said, it was not my intention to bash him, but I think constructive criticism should not always be unicorns and roses. He might be up to something but it was my impression that he picked up some lines from the newspapers about HFT and thought "Hey, lets make the world a better place". Fair...
  6. M

    Ritchie - Web Site Update

    Wow, wtf did I just read? You guys are planning your own exchange?? However, I'm not quite sure if you have the right background/knowledge or if you work on it from the right angle... On the one hand, making an exchange "supersonically fast so everyone has the same speed" is nonsense. The...
  7. M

    Nassim Taleb: Ask Me Anything

    no, it's the split. 2% management fee and 20% profit split. Selling OTM premium works like a charm...untill it doesn't. Create a website with lots of word shells like "quantitative models" put some lipstick on a monkey and put it behind your trading station...just in case investors come to visit...
  8. M

    Nassim Taleb: Ask Me Anything

    Well, I'm not a nobel prize winner but the problem with Talebs Black Swan approach is the fact that he doesn't discount for the opportunity cost of low frequency events. In other words, if you look at a distribution with zero alpha and add a single outlier which is the entire alpha, missing to...
  9. M

    Nassim Taleb: Ask Me Anything

    You know, I'd rather read Sinclair to be honest. His stuff is practical and his models are robust/uses models in a robust way. By "professionals" do you mean those guys who work for big banks, never risk their own money and juggle a massively overleveraged portfolio on the basis of a wonky...
  10. M

    Nassim Taleb: Ask Me Anything

    Yeah...it's not that it was difficult to read or to understand what he's trying to say. But if your inner response is either "so what?", "Don't you say" or "how is that usefull" after every 5 sentences, you slowly...very slowly feel the rage growing inside you. Untill you end it by burning the...
  11. M

    Nassim Taleb: Ask Me Anything

    I don't know...I don't like this guy. He's waffling about his abstract mindfarts, yet all he achieved is writing books and papers. He's just like Black/Schools/Merton who sit inside their multi million dollar appartments, musing over their "adventures" with LTCM, although they almost caused a...
  12. M

    Trading Edge for Humans is Intuition

    @MarketOwl : Well, thanks to the internet, you can look up threats till 2007 here on ET just for you to see, that people back then ask questions just as stupid as today. It was difficult/impossible for them to make money 10 years ago just as it is difficult/impossible for most people to make...
  13. M

    Trading Edge for Humans is Intuition

    I don't think this is necessary. Just get your ass to sit in front of the screen 12H a day and you will find out yourself. Trading has always been a truckton of work. Those who made easy money back in the days and went to the beach two hours after the open did not keep it
  14. M

    Trading Edge for Humans is Intuition

    Look, from your standpoint you are correct. But try to look at it from the other side. A problem for market makers is always adverse selection and trading against anonymous informed orderflow. In plain English: When someone, who knows more than the market maker hits him with size, the MM is...
  15. M

    Trading Edge for Humans is Intuition

    I do understand what you are saying, but I don't think you understand that paper has always been frontrun. Today it's for pennies, when you were trading through the floor, you got ripped off for nickels or sometimes even dollars. It's just the name of the game: If you cannot move price, you...
  16. M

    Trading Edge for Humans is Intuition

    @MarketOwl I don't know man, I operate in the timeframe you are saying it is dominated by the machines. In some points you are probably right, but I would not generalize. First of all, the "easy" inefficiencies are gone, like correlation effects and big orders that where sitting ducks 10 years...
  17. M

    Ideal Account Size for New / Developing Day Trader

    @_eug_ what you are doing is absolutely correct. There is no reason to scale up untill you have proven yourself that it is time to do so. Honestly, I don't understand why anyone would recommend a bigger account "bcus u need to make da$$". This is nonsense IMO. Keep in mind that your account...
  18. M

    How are my orders getting jumped in the queue at a given Limit price?

    Something inside me just died a little...after all this discussions about subpenny trades and payment for orderflow, you did learn nothing????? https://www.tdameritrade.com/retail-en_us/resources/pdf/AMTD2054.pdf...
  19. M

    Tweetdeck sucks ,as does twitter. But is there a

    use twitterfall...problem solved
  20. M

    How are my orders getting jumped in the queue at a given Limit price?

    @d0rian: alright...I'm not as old as the following phrase suggests but ..."back in the day" when trading was still mouse clicking, the trade went like this: You see size in the book, you wait for it to trade in order to see if it's real or not. If it's real, you undercut it by one tick. If you...
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