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I remember the late 90s dotcom boom, and that was all about NGU too. Everyone was chasing the latest hot stocks. For a while, it seemed like you couldn't lose... When rampant speculation takes over, it usually ends in a bloodbath.

These days, Joe public are only interested in NGU investments (Number Goes Up). Hence the craze for crypto, tech and meme stocks. They'll buy anything which offers the chance to get rich quick. If gold, and especially silver which is a tiny market, ever get perceived as NGU then the sky could...

I was of the same mindset back in 2013, when I suffered a large drawdown (ie. it's too late to sell now). Unfortunately, it went on to become a far bigger drawdown, and I'm still deep underwater to this day. Lessons learned: 1) Think you know the worst case scenario? Think again! 2) A big...

Chart looking a bit weak. https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#igHourlyzczsg2021-11-09ztgCzm1g200zm2g25zp The current drawdown, since early Nov, may not be done yet.

With BTC, 30% is noise. :D

Yep, and BTC isn't looking like the NGU it used to be. Four years on from the Dec 2017 high, it's only up a paltry 100%. Investors these days are a fickle bunch and they'll soon move on if there seems like a better chance of GRQ (getting rich quick) with something else.

I imagine there are far too many "believers"/strong hands for it to fall anywhere near that low. It would take something monumental to shake the "bitcoin faithful".

40% drawdown since November. https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#ig30-minzczsg2021-11-09ztgCzm1g200zm2g25zp Might not be a bad time to start building a position. Catching a falling bitcoin knife has always eventually paid off in the past...

Fake news! Next you will be telling us that Covid is real, and the vaccines don't contain microchips.

Good point. For (a), bitcoin seems like a possible candidate. It has volatility by the bucket load. :D

As I said, there is another way, which 'riskfreetrading' eluded to in point (3) of his "obvious but not obvious". https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/why-is-the-obvious-not-so-obvious.151802/page-51#post-2380268 Oh, and joining a strong trend definitely satisfies his point (5). Combine 3&5...

Unless I've misunderstood what you mean by trading with a "strong trend", then this would mean accepting that: (a) you will always miss out on a big part of the move (the formative stage before it developed into a strong trend) (b) you may be entering just as the trend is about to end, and...

A little bird tells me that the Obvious will be fully revealed when we reach page 1000. So everyone keep posting. :D

It's too early to tell. If BTC doesn't fall below $30k in the coming months, then the maximum drawdown would have been around 55% (for coins bought @ $65k in April). There's no way of knowing if $30k was the bottom. It's anyone's guess what might happen next year.

The data source I used only went back to Q4 2011. https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgCzm1g200zm2g25zl

Yes, I suppose technically the chart should be the other way up.

I put together this which shows all the drawdowns over the past 10 years. There have been two over 80%. Investing $10,000 in either Dec 2013 or Dec 2017, and hodling, would have resulted in your account shrinking to about $1,500 before recovering. The data for 2021 may be premature if there...

BTC hodlers have to learn to live with this because 30% drawdowns occur regularly. Up to now, it's always recovered, even from 80% drawdowns.

For most asset classes, a 33% loss would be a big event but it's just run of the mill with BTC. If I can find the time, I might calculate the average frequency of drawdown events (-20%, -30%, -50%, -70%) for BTC. I can get the daily data from here...

Good point. Perhaps gold is the closest comparison. That too has a bit of a cult following (gold bugs and stackers).