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Dudes relax. USA is still the biggest market, it has the biggest GDP by a big margin. Which of the s&p 500 companies are you against? When the bond/gold bubble bursts the exit will be fast and violent. WTF with Zimbabwe? Where is it? The 600 bill is only 7% increase in M2. The fed has no...

What if: 1. The Econ data keeps improving 2. The fed cools on the full QE II? 3. Signs show up for impending rate increase? What will happen to gold and some other speculative commodities? What will happen to the bond market? Where will the money go to? Just saying...

A deflationary spiral is a situation where decreases in price lead to lower production, which in turn leads to lower wages and demand, which leads to further decreases in price.[9] Since reductions in general price level are called deflation, a deflationary spiral is when reductions in price...

The effects of deflation are: Decreasing nominal prices for goods and services Increasing real value of cash money and all monetary items Discourages bank savings and decreases investment Enriches creditors at the expenses of debtors Benefits fixed-income earners Recessions and...

On a first glance the conspiracy theorists do not believe in Occam's razor principle. After all, all of their theories are much much more complex than the official story. To the point of absurdity. But it seems that they do use Occam's razor principle as well. Making a conspiracy theory about...

Chuck Norris does not target a rate the word target infers the probability of failure. Chuck Norris sets the rate.

When the Deflation goes to sleep every night it checks its closet for Chuck Norris.

Chuck Norris can beat the Chinese into buying more of our debt whereas Tim Geithner has to beg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aLepjRCRQ3go Chuck Norris doesn't target inflation. He roundhouse-kicks it until it begs for mercy. The Chuck Norris dollar buys 3 Canadian dollars, and trades at parity with the euro. Chuck Norris doesn't supply collateral, only...

All your comments were right on the money! <img src="http://mjbell8.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/a_tip_of_the_hat_by_jollyjack.jpg" />

Is the current M2 around 8709 bill? If it is this is 7% increase.

Why didn't I short the ZB?!? Now it is so obvious. :) But who was buying all the way to 133??

Taken together, the Desk anticipates conducting $850 billion to $900 billion of purchases of longer-term Treasury securities through the end of the second quarter. This would result in an average purchase pace of roughly $110 billion per month, representing about $75 billion per month associated...

Last time it took 3 days for the long end to go from 133 to 130. Today only 30 min. That qualifies for shitting blood I guess. But the middle is stable. Was there an expectation that the FED will buy some long end? I think they made it clear the buying will be in the middle.

The FED open communication channel worked. Not Shock and Awe. So there should not be much of a move either way.

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<img src="http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2769/4265834523_46ea4268e0_o.jpg" />

Agree. Delta is the probability of the option ending up in the money not the probability that the price will end up on the strike.

Also delta is the probability that the underlying will finish on the strike price at expiration. 50 delta =50% probability

Using options will make you guess the future volatility. You can count your deltas but if you are wrong about the volatility your result will vary. Also when you are using options you need to pay close attention to the gamma. If the gamma gets too big then the delta can get out of control in...