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As an afterthought, I'll most likely be including a fair amount about how prop/flow trading is varying in nature from my private trading styles and habits, rather than detailing individual trades. In short its objective is to help me record reasons and discussions around my successes and...

Good morning/evening everyone. This thread will serve as my personal trading journal, and naturally will not contain any trades relating to my professional account. As a brief introduction, I trade Australian equities and global FICC. Apart from the odd opportunistic day trade or two, I...

Trading live for an audience would be like going all in at the other players' whim. No matter how good you are, no one's success rate is perfect, and even the likes of Pimco would have soiled their reputatin had they met a challenge to show the market how they do so well in early 2011. Unless...

That's the primary reason defensives fair better during crises - not because their performances are expected to improve outright, just improve relative to the rest of the market.

The most important thing I learnt was to wait for signals that would confirm I was trading with the trend, rather than buying a falling stock and selling a rising one. Contrarian views have never worked for me, and so being patient and waiting for a signal that the market had bottomed/topped has...

So the USDJPY is nearing that 75 mark where the BOJ stepped in with force last time. The fundamentals still point to a stronger yen, as do the technicals, and the pair is a month off the time that it took to break out of its previous trading range in June 2011. BOJ have stepped in at lower...

Im not quite sure I understand the foreign currency bank example, how that would impact Australian bank rates, as retail banks are fully hedged most of the time so as not to risk falling out of line with the other lenders. Taxes are a good point, capital gains tax would mean that rising rates...

I too have been pondering the US suffering from hyperinflation, but I just can't see it happening whilst private debt levels are so high and home equity is falling. 0 and QE however many can't inject the spending into the economy that would be required to cause hyperinflation. That being...

I wrote a brief piece about it at www.pimmtrading.blogspot.com in relation to the 10 year notes. SPX growth is underpinned by positive GDP, and inflation. The current SPX levels suggest yields should be far higher, particularly in the longer term notes and bonds. You need to be able to...

Sure, that makes sense. I forget that I always have to put that in somewhere, it's easy to forget that we are significantly outnumbered.

Thanks for the quick reply and details. At least trading futures there is generally 0 commission and the spreads aren't too wide, so that's a good sign. Why would you consider eurodollars a better hedge than government bonds (specific to the country that your mortgage is taken out in). As an...

Here's a question that was sparked by a previous thread. I want to take out a mortgage on a floating rate, which is sitting around 1% lower than the fixed rate equivalent, but since I believe rates are likely to rise over the next 20 years or so, I want to hedge the rate and lock it in. I tried...

I think an out of the money option will be your best bet. Besides that you could take out a personal loan and use that as a cfd account deposit, infinitely increasing your leverage. Just place a careful stop.

Actually there is one far easier way of placing the trade you suggest. Put it on as a pair trade with a defensive and aggressive stock. Higher correlation between stocks causes stock betas to drift towards 1 (index beta), as they all start performing the same, which therefore means the same...

Here's one, technical, way to do it. I'll use the Dow 30 as my example. It involves holding two assets, one the index and one a basket portfolio of all the stocks that make up that index, with the correct weightings (an exact mimic). Variances swaps are the assets used to trade this. If all...

My chart is essentially the same as yours, just made in excel. The data represents the stock price / bullion price to get a % value (ratio). I chose Newcrest (NCM.AX) and Kingsgate (KCN.AX) simply because a. I trade more Australian than US equities, and these two are Australia's two biggest gold...

I got the graph in, seems I needed to save it as a smaller file.

Gold's recent volatility has seen the correlation between gold stocks and the underlying metal fall out of whack, with gold stocks now pricing in a gold price closer to $1000, despite the metal's higher price. The Australian miners of NCM and KCN have fallen considerably in 2011, and US...

Whilst monetary policy (lower benchmark rates) is traditionally used to increase inflation (and therefore devalue a currency), it is still dependent on the country. The Japanese economy has always suffered from a high savings rate (ratio of income saved:income spent), especially in comparison...

I don't think a bearish view of the SPX is particularly controversial from an economic view - consider the unemployment rate, debt to GDP ratio and house price index. Then compare the SPX to other global indices (sorry to be biased, but take Australia as an example). Debt is still...