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I actually think futures are very expensive right now (given that we couldnt turn the tape red today on the bear's arguements with taper/syria). With SPX HV at ~10-11%, we have $VIX trading near ~17%. Usually I see a 3-4% premium on $VIX, which means we should be closer to 13-14 than 17 IMO.

That is certainly a possibility, but being a VIX trader myself, it was a very bullish day to me seeing extremely pro-taper data, a congress ready to vote for a Syrian strike, the $VIX making a move back to Fridays levels, and then seeing the SPX unable to turn red and the VIX Futures not...

Your opinion is greatly appreciated. (No sarcasm)

VIX futures are not buying into the $VIX move up today. First time it's done that in this sell off. In fact it it appears VIX Futures are fading the fear, so I'm expecting a vol selling event by week close. SPX should close the gaps that TraderFighter is looking at.

IMO, tapering is a non-issue. No one expects QE till end of 2014. Everyone expects it. Everyone is already positioned. Debt ceiling will be a speed bump. Markets are more and more muted to debt talks post-011'.

But I bet if your trade went +14% this week, you'd be very happy. And none taken. I trade vol, so a 14% movement in ES is equivalent to some 30-50% or higher depending on how violent the move was. Definitely not noise to me, but to each their own! I respect your views on the boards. I lurk more...

Lets not get demeaning here. But the fact is you can make great amounts on a 14% run in the ES in either direction. These are by no means "noise". I'm not sure why you would call them such unless you were holding on a multi-year duration, which I don't believe so.

-14% is not what I define as a bit more than noise. And for the timeline most people are calling the downturn in, it is crash-esque.

This isn't backed by any TA or anything but, a move to 1500 right now would be the most telegraphed crash in history. Markets are anti-ultilitarian.

Where do you think the ES is headed from here?

The only leverage I use in my strategy is in the 2x leverage of the ETF. But no borrowed margins or anything of that sort. It's cash-trading. Are these returns good for a situation like this? I'm still looking for other comparisons (percentage-wise) for other people's daily returns. And I'm...

Yes, stop losses are emplored. Usually very tight ones. Typically the stops will be placed 0.1-0.7% below a position I find favourable. I broke my cardinal rule today, however, and opened down -10.3% because of holding a UVXY position overnight (which I thought was favourable, but the jobs...

The strategy relies on several factors. The main factor being daily compounding. While 54-100% return a month may sound absurd, we are only dealing with maintaining an average daily return of 2-3%. My greatest single day loss so far has been 5.05%. In order to lose 54-100% a month, I'd have...

Do I take a screenshot of my trading account or from wherever I keep-track of my P/L? I keep my P/L records outside of my account. Does this pass as credible? Also, yes, I'm hoping the vol model works out for October. I'm sitting in an overnight trade currently and hoping that doesnt sour my...

How am I doing? Oct. 1: +3.6% Oct. 2: +3.71% Oct. 3: Flat Oct. 4: +0.45% All in all, after compounding, up about +8.12% for the week so far. I trade Volatility. I'm new to this forum and I'm looking to get an assesment on how I'm doing. October is the first month I plan on running my...