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In a normal, lower volatility bull market, this type of day would typically trend higher for the rest of the day with a few dips, but in this environment it could be one large flag one could sell into for a big move lower. Not a prediction...

Would normally see at least a 41 print here intraday, statistically speaking, but last week's mid-point may negate that. Pretty nice ride so far this morning, though. Looks like someone may be front-running the FOMC tomorrow. Strong up moves have been sold lately, so it's no reason for the...

4237. Last week's mid-point. Worth paying some attention to. :cool:

Did you quit your Hershey studies?

Thanks! Mostly interested in futures myself, but I keep an open mind. Let me know if you find out that episode.

Yeah. There's quite a few episodes, though. Anyone particular you'd recommend? Seems like there's a lot of equities traders there. A bit less on futures, but I only skimmed the TOC quickly. Currently listening to Kristjan Kullamagi which is a quite good episode, too.

You're making the faulty assumption that these talking heads know j''ck about the markets or where it's headed. If they did - they wouldn't be talking heads, would they? Of course, if they're making recommendations at all, i.e., buy, that's a different matter.

Thank you! I've been recommended this multiple times, but didn't get to it as the amount of episodes was overwhelming, but I finally took the plunge and listened to the interview by Lance Breitstein. It was both motivating and discouraging. This guy was considering giving up as he was still...

First of all - nobody said you can see on a chart what institutions and big players do, so that's a strawman argument. But your view then is that a trader have to see what institutions and big players do in order to succeed. Is that really true? Arguably, the only thing a directional trader...

He and how many others? Incredible fortunes have been made over the last 10 years by long only traders, but I imagine some of them might be giving back a lot (and some will give back all) during this downturn as what's always worked is no longer working. Most new investors/traders never...

Gap filled. :cool: Where to from here? Lower seems like the more likely trajectory, IMO, but it may be a bumpy ride. FOMC on Wednesday. We're only ~ 1.3 % from the February low as of today's close.

For what it's worth I did an incredible amount of work on this with the end result being a custom made statistical application which I use to attempt to predict the trading day ahead. I have no idea if this is a similar model to the one suggested by @Cheese. I've made some interesting...

Anyone other than maxinger trading this here on ET? I've tried to get data through IQFeed, but they do not have it. That is, they had index data, but not futures data.

Curious... In your 20 year trading career - since when did you become fully automated? Were you initially trading discretionary? What's the capital base you're utilizing to generate those returns?

March 2000 to October 2002 (31 months) - a 50 % correction on SPX. October 2007 to March 2009 (17 months) - a 58 % correction on SPX. I'm not sure anyone is saying the market is going to permanently correct. Historically, every correction on SPX have been just that. A correction. Between...

I think it's undisputable that historically the long term trend is up and that there's a natural updrift to the stock market indices over time. I just don't agree with the characterization of "long only" as it's clearly a market that swings both ways.

Curious if anyone did any more work on this type of trading model and arrived at any interesting conclusions/applications?

Are those technical indicators, then? Part of my own desire/motivation for utilizing indicators is that I want something which is objective and repeatable and not subject to interpretation. Except for a few custom indicators which plot levels rather than classical MA/Momentum style indicators...

I see you often speak of probabilities. Are these actual probabilities derived from statistical data or are you just speaking in general terms as to what you seem most likely from your own studies...?

Not sure I'd agree with the "long only" characterization of the US indices, but there is no doubt an upwards drift/bias in the indices long term. Holding long is easier as the volatility and counter-moves usually are weaker with more persistent trends. Unless you shorted the highs it's hard to...