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I’m still lurking a bit on Twitter and the bearish sentiment seems really strong. Not many who seem bullish. Quite a few are looking for a crash as well. Makes you wonder… Can the crowd really get it right? I think it’s better to trade it day by day or week by week.

Doesn't repeat itself indefinitely, though. At some point we'll break out and leave this range behind for a while. I do think there's good reason to be cautious towards the long side, though, and we are in a prior failure zone. Probably good to generally be cautious in this market... :)

With the initial failue of 4200, I can see some back-filling / retracement going into FOMC from here. Maybe 4150/4130. And then a new plunge or rally come Wednesday. Really uneventful session. Closed pretty much where we opened. Should be no surprise with some consolidation considering last...

So much for 4220 today, huh. I think we close green, though. Maybe 4195. If the LOD breaks - well, that changes things.

Not much happening up here. I re-entered long, but after scratching out the prior two which was in good profit at some point, I'm not going to let it happen a third time. I'm probably in the pullback zone here and could get stopped out on noise, but since I'm not extremely confident in higher...

If we get a 4220/30 print today, I might take the week off until Thursday. Hard to see us moving much higher than that pre-FOMC, but I could easily be wrong on that.

Range bound day so far. At 17.50 points this is the smallest range so far in 2023 if we don't see expansion by the Close. The initial breakout failed as it often does, but on the thrust lower we never made a new LOD and barely dipped below Friday's Close / HOD. NQ also reversed nicely and is...

That was an initial failure to breakout above 4200. NQ new lows. ES still range bound. May try another long as long as we don't make a new LOD, but obviously it's not playing out as expected(hoping?) so far today.

And voila. 4200 tagged on ES. Not much happening yet, though, but NQ is nearly back up at today's high now, so it's shaping up well for the bulls. Like @Buy1Sell2 would say: I see no obvious reason to be short here. At least not yet. :cool:

Holding above Friday's High / Close for now. There's still hope... :) Come on now, NQ! Let's do this.

They got me at B/E + 1 tick. Flat. Waiting a bit here to see how the day develops. NQ is not really participating. If we're holding up nicely here at 4190 or don't make a new LOD, I may try the long side one more time.

Added one at 4193 for an average of 4188,25. Stop at B/E on entire position. Will re-evaluate if stopped. Failing once more to break higher is not ideal. If so, this could turn into a consolidation day instead which statistically wouldn't be unlikely anyway.

The key now is holding above Friday's High / Close ( 4189.75). If that doesn't hold, it sadly seems more probable that we'll fall back inside Friday's range for today's session. It would seem odd if we don't get a 4200 print at least, but nothing's ever certain in this game, is it?

4200 incoming. Will someone sell this level or do we blast through? What say ye, gentlemen? I'm swinging for the fences here with one point of profit locked in. 4230 by EOD looks about right if this continues, but I'll probably be content with 4220.

Gentlemen, I believe we have lift-off. Stop at B/E here and will probably re-enter if stopped. Otherwise, holding for the 4200 BO (which may be sold or not).

Still holding with a stop at 79. Should see a pop on the Open, IMO, and we'll get that attempt at 4200. If we drop to 79 I'll rather stop out and re-enter either in that area or lower for a pullback. We're a bit overextended, so it's not unlikely with a deeper pullback first. EDIT: Got the...

According to your web site, most of these people (would-be-traders) will continue as bakers, delivery drivers and programmers, though. :) I imagine that out of the few who pass, even less stay funded long-term. You have any data on that?

Got my long entry with an average at 4186 on two contracts. Prepared to stop out for a point or two and re-enter if I'm early. The entire world is anticipating a break above 4200 at this point. If it's successful with continuation, I think we can hit 4230 today. Confidence level = medium...

Thanks for the heads up. The last few 1st of May have moved fairly well, though. 2020, 2019, 2018. I think we'll see the much anticipated breakout of 4200 (ES) today.

My impression was that most of them were fairly clueless and had zero idea what they were doing - blindly trusting that guru. Quite shocking. I received a few DMs asking me to teach them when I said I had my own method and was only in the room to check out what was going on and that it would...