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Yes, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone here. Thanks for making the ACD thread the highest posted thread under technical analysis (knocking out that crazy Elliot wave crap). Just kidding....:)

This is pretty typical of most fixed income shops. Although Breakwater, TMG, Chopper (before they were bought out) all paid higher salaries but also were probably tougher to get into.

There are several trades that look good now. In index land long TF/ES spread. In the FX land long USD/CAD on pullbacks. In the sector space, the solar ETF TAN.

Looks like the risk indicator has turned off (i.e. get long risk).

Come again? How does an oil spike cause a recession? And what exactly would cause this oil spike? Surely it's not the millions of barrels of oil sitting on cargos all over the world wasting away looking desperately for a buyer.

Not sure if you are aware of this but there is a massive water shortage in the world. And there is a massive over supply of oil. I bet that spread widens a lot more.

There can be a lot of end of year distortions in oil and gas, just be careful with that. Both markets were long overdue for squeezes.

Yes sir. You better do a little more research Mr. Papa Georgio. Those oil ETF's are not long physical, they are long the forward curve which is massively steep right now. If that curve inverts, it will take more then one doctor to remove that sharp object from your backside.

You need to spend more time on the math. The ETF's are long the curve which is steep in contango. They are not a bet on spot oil. In fact, it's conceivable they could actually drop in value on a move to 42 if the market suddenly went into backwardation.

This is not mathematically possible even with "fuzzy math".

This is false. The Fed dramatically raised rates before and right after the crash. There are no similarities between the 1930's and today.

OddTrader, most of the media and journalists that write about swaps don't understand them. Most of the journalists and bloggers don't understand them either. Can you lose money on swaps? Of course. But that means there is a counterparty making money on them. The whole swap boogeyman angle...

Do not get long oil when it's this steep in contango. The roll yield will kill you even if spot goes higher.

Then why not short it? LOL. The market is paying you a huge roll yield to short it.

OddTrader, I think you are failing to understand the math behind swaps. Swaps are just a exchange of interest payments that are benchmarked against a notional amount. The notional amount is not really that relevant. It more or less just gives the size of the overall economy. Quoting the...

Most commodities are priced on supply and demand. Not sure what is so magical about that. Yes, there are dispersions around the fundamentals but ultimately supply and demand determine price.

This link might be of interest: http://www.federalreservehistory.org/Period/Essay/10 The Fed actually raised interest rates both right before and right after the depression.

What do you mean by link? The Fed has always set the discount rate from 1913 to the present. You were asking about fed funds rate.

You do know that the FED does NOT set the fed funds rate right? They "target" the fed funds rate via the discount rate. It's the "discount rate" that the FED actually sets.

Derivatives does not mean options. Options are a small subset of derivatives. Interest rate swaps make up a large bulk of that total. And THAT swap market is largely derived from the FX market.