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I'm glad other people see this guy's nonsense.

If you have sound logic to believe there is a 65% chance something will happen... Then that's a prediction. I don't know why this guy is hung up thinking anyone is talking about predicting with 100% certainty.

My brokerage (Schwab) has $1200 maintenance margin for Micro ES. I guess I missed out. I currently have 3 RBM21 (gasoline futures). They briefly went down to the worst case scenario on my prediction and I almost was forced to sell at 100% loss (-$17,100), but they went way up towards the end...

Because it's extremely risky. And I realize there's a chance that I could be wrong. Or even if I'm right eventually, it could go bad in the short-term and get a margin call, etc.

It was a set of related predictions centered on how the economy would revert to a more normal state of affairs when lockdowns eased. Stock indices, oil and other petroleum products, a few currencies and currency pairs. The lockdowns created a unique situation where some easy predictions were...

I didn't want to risk it. Because I have less risky ventures that I can make good money with. Things that don't feel at all like gambling.

Until last week, I hadn't been on here since April. Back in April, I was saying that the S&P would go back up to at least 3100. Morons that remind me of you called me stupid... Look what happened. I would have increased money at 237% if I bought a ES futures and held it until the present. All...

^^ We found the Internet tough guy of the forum! Do you still live at your mommies house?

How did your moving averages help you when the coronavirus hit?

George Soros. And like I said previously, most macroeconomics professors don't even understand the fundamentals. I never claimed it was easy to get a clear picture of what's going on with the economy. And with such a hazy view, definitely not a good idea to bet large sums of highly leveraged...

Even something like following a trend isn't always possible to identify until after the fact. For example, look at the S&P since 9/2/20. Is it in a new downtrend? Or just a slight dip as part of a larger uptrend?

The probabilities of casino games are written into the rules of the games. There are no such written rules in stocks, currencies, commodities, futures, options, etc. This is where knowledge of macroeconomics comes into play to enhance your odds. Don't tell me your using TA, are you?

Ok. So I need to be right 51% of the time. Which I actually said in the last paragraph of post #11.

If there's no way to predict anything... Then might as well play roulette, right?

Well everyone should know that a surprisingly good earnings report can boost a stock.

The fundamentals are more advanced than that. Even people with PhD's in economics mostly don't understand the fundamentals. And that wasn't the reason for asking the original question. I was looking for a way to separate legitimate companies like Amazon that may choose to have zero earnings...

You should read "Alchemy of Finance" by George Soros. There is rhyme and reason to the markets, but even the best economists on the planet haven't gotten it down to a science. Often the people who move the markets are illogical.

If there's no way to increase your odds to >50% by your own knowledge, then there is no point. Might as well go play roulette or stick to your day job. My prediction that MESM20 would go to 3100 "at some point" was a high probability. I'm kind of surprised how quickly it happened honestly...

Well actually I backed out of my "buy MESM20 and hold until 3100" trade because I decided to focus on my real job and quit "gambling". I would have made a ridiculously high % return if I stuck with it. Does anyone know the answer to the original question? We've gone way off topic.

It is possible to have predictions that are based on solid logic. Such as when I posted that the S&P would return to at least 3100 shortly (I think I posted this back in April) and it only took 2 months to happen. I can predict that if corona vaccines are effective and distributed in mass, that...