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  1. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Grrr...should have trusted my model. I would guess this doesn't drop much lower, though. 4145 looks like a thick level. If no bid there, then 4135. Probably only going to watch.
  2. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    I've no edge here. Statistically, odds favor a move lower, though. From a charting perspective, it looks like 50/50. A big move higher or lower would be a surprise today. I think @Spooz Top 2 nailed it for today. :thumbsup:
  3. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    FWIW, my statistical model gives fairly low odds of a new high by the Close here. Let's see if it's any good. Good chance we're looking at an Inside Day here and an account churner with false breakouts in both directions. I'd be happy to see a move above 4160. I don't think I would expect...
  4. L

    Coming back (almost) from the cliff

    Excellent. Well done. Did that dive change anything for you? Seems like you're running a fairly high risk profile if you could lose that much so quickly?
  5. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    NQ wants to go lower, but every spike down is bought. Tricky day indeed. I stopped out for a 5 point loss on that spike down. Not trading the short side here as I see a lot of potential bids below, but will re-enter long if I like what develops.
  6. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Reversed off 4150 for now. FBO off the LOD. Let's see if it's just an initial bounce or if we actually found the LOD here. Not too late for this day to reverse and go higher by the Close, but it's a bit uncertain here at the moment, IMO. Not easy to short either with so much support below. I'm...
  7. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    No bid yet... Need a strong move higher from here to reverse this structure. I'd say at least 4140.
  8. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Looks like a down day to me, but maybe 4150 will reverse this. Will take a short down to 4135 if we don't find support around 50. Waiting and watching for now. There's a lot of potential support below, so it's not an easy short.
  9. L

    dest's vol-arb and modeling journal

    With a new user called GutterSlut shilling for Apex / Darrell Martin this thread just hit a new rock bottom. A self taught trading savant crushing it as a futures trader that suddenly decided to come to ET to learn options. LOL.
  10. L

    dest's vol-arb and modeling journal

    As predicted, you respond in anger and retort to personal insults. I will not check out that sheet because I have zero interest in it. If people are losing money or trading in simulator that's fine with me as long as they're not selling anything or trying to teach others. I would only support...
  11. L

    dest's vol-arb and modeling journal

    Oh, for sure. I'm alone. I gave up on the idea of comradery or team work a long time ago having tried to make some lasting connections. I've connected with a few people here and talked privately, but nobody will give away anything beyond generalities and I respect/accept that. Keep in mind that...
  12. L

    dest's vol-arb and modeling journal

    Personally, I learned the hard way to not trust or listen to anyone. I don't care about wisdom or philosophy as it relates to trading as that's not going to put any money in my pocket unless it's something I can test and verify for myself. Generally, those who have something valuable to teach...
  13. L

    dest's vol-arb and modeling journal

    Lucky how so? You should really calm down on the ass-kissing as I'm ready to puke up my breakfast here any minute now. So, you're suggesting a member should consider suicide. It's not the first time I see you writing stuff like that on these boards. You complain about trolls, but in...
  14. L

    Complacency in trading.

    I'm a part time trader, so I don't trade every day and on many days I miss the 2-3 initial hours of the RTH session. Those days are the worst as I usually miss the main move and am left picking up the crumbs. With the volatility being good this year there's usually some juice left in the...
  15. L

    dest's vol-arb and modeling journal

    This is a chit chat thread, buddy. Zero trading content, so it should be moved to chit chat.
  16. L

    Complacency in trading.

    Thank you, SML. I try to stay humble, though. Next week is a new week and maybe I just had a lucky run. After all, there's some very smart and experienced guys here who says that TA does not work and that it's impossible to day trade index futures profitably. The market does not appear to be...
  17. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    I've no idea where the market will move medium-term/long term, but this 4200 area have been hard to break through on prior attempts, so it does warrant some caution to the long side in the week to come. I can see both a failure to breakout for a reversal lower or continuation higher for a bit...
  18. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    I'm pleased to see that this prediction turned out fairly well... :) Contrary to what many may believe, a strong trend day on a Thursday doesn't have a very high probability of follow through on Friday. There's generally a very high probability of taking out Thursday's high, but that's about...
  19. L

    Coming back (almost) from the cliff

    Wow. Nice comeback! You’re a big swinging d*ck if that’s USD. What happened that caused such a nasty drawdown and how were you able to claw your way back?
  20. L

    Complacency in trading.

    So, I funded a new small account that I started trading the 13th of March and I nearly tripled it since then over 21 trading days with a few bumps along the way. This is day trading e-mini futures. No swing trades. I think I may have solved the issue of complaceny by simply arriving fresh for...
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