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I think you misunderstand, Ed... Printing press isn't a solution. It's a way to buy yourself time, while the necessary structural adjustments are made. Capital formation/GDP (I think that's a slightly better term than "investment") can only be increased over time, as a result of particular...

Maybe, but you'd better get your timing right, no? Western punters have tried to do this trade early every year (when you still have bullets to get the heroic trade on) for nearly a decade now. Like clockwork, by mid-year they're stopped out when they've run out of patience. Einhorn introduced...

I completely agree... All I care about is the underlying process, rather than the conclusions and outcomes.

Ah, that's because you're disregarding the negative carry... Which is OK to do if you expect the blowup to occur tomorrow. However, if you have to wait a few years for the blowup to arrive, you're gonna die a death of a thousand cuts. JGB GC is <10bps, so for every year your 10y JGB just sits...

But hold on... The bureaucrats in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy have made the hard choices. Austerity in these countries is happening (maybe not enough, but it's already painful). Whether it will work long-term or not, I don't know. There's Germany talking about ceding come of its...

100% unfair in this specific case. As I said repeatedly now, I have nothing against Bass in particular. I have a beef with people like Bass. I have given you a few sample names. In contrast, to give you an example of someone I have a lot of respect for, I really like Ray Dalio. Talk about...

Huh? I thought you weren't a fan of bureaucrats (like Bernanke) making hard choices, e.g. deciding to do more QE? I don't disagree, but would you applaud if the ECB decides to buy unlimited amounts of periphery debt tomorrow? That's a pretty hard choice...

Yep, although you have to be careful with this particular set of numbers. If I am not mistaken, these are numbers for trade conducted w/China by the EU27, i.e. all the 27 members of the European Union. That includes the UK, as well as other countries that aren't members of the EMU, aka EA17.

Well, I thought Tilson used to make money for his investors, but what do I know. And yes, I will try to get my numbers right this time. Huh? What's this for? What's your issue?

Not at all... I don't mind Bass specifically at all, as I have said. I don't even have a problem with his message, even though, as I said, I will be able to adress it more meaningfully later. What I do have a problem with is people like Kyle Bass etc, who are on TV to tell a story. I just...

And?

GOVI is the screen in Bloomberg, but I am not sure where you can get them on the web.

Right, I can see that both yourself and GoC are fans of Kyle Bass, so this is my response to GoC as well as yourself... Firstly, my comment wasn't ad hominem. I have nothing against Kyle Bass specifically. I have a problem generally with people who go on TV and tell stories. This includes...

Sure... Suppose you're a macro punter at a large hedge fund, for example. Let's say your resident economist, let's call him Marty F, tells you that he's forecasting a recession, based on a whole bunch of leading/coincident hard economic data. You agree and decide to go put on a ginormous...

Actually, having checked my sources, it appears I am mistaken. The Eurozone is actually running a pretty hefty trade deficit w/China. Hmmm, I wonder where I got the idea that they're net flat. I stand corrected.

Well, define "temporary", Daal... As far as I am aware, they've been doing it for a very long time now, which means that EUR has been "higher" than some sort of equilibrium value (PPP or whatever) for a long time. As long as their trade deficit w/the US persists and they keep accumulating USD...

Well, the Chinese buying of EUR is a fact that the whole mkt is aware of, rather than a figment of my imagination. So I am not suggesting some sort of a conspiracy theory. I am just stating that I expect that things are unlikely to change. [B] Yeah, the Eurozone imports more from China than...

Of course, the regime may change... However, the key elements are still in place. The Eurozone is a trade-neutral area. Specifically, it's not running a trade deficit w/China. On the other hand, the Chinese are still desperate to diversify their FX reserves away from USD. In fact, given the...

No.

Kyle Bass is silly... Just like the other overly publicized people that periodically show up on TV to tell everyone their deep thoughts on all sorts of subjects, he just tells stories that sound plausible, but, on reflection, prove very superficial. Generally, I find there's really too many...